Re: Sorry couldn't resist
All right, this sort of statement bothers me. Do we really think that Tolkien uses these two terms interchangeably? Well, we can test the usage according to statistics (any statisticians please help me along here- I'm definitely not a statistics expert).
I count the following usages of the Orcs referring to themselves as either Uruks or Uruk-hai:
Isengarders calling themselves Uruk-hai: 6 (TT p. 61, p. 67, p. 68, p. 184, p. 184, p. 184)
Isengarders calling themselves Uruks: 0
Mordor Orcs calling themselves Uruk-hai: 0
Mordor Orcs calling themselves Uruks: 1 (TT p. 441)
Well, there's not that many intstances here, but let's see what we find. I'm going to assume that Uruks and Uruk-hai are interchangeable for the sake of this exercise. Since they are interchangeable, they will have an equal opportunity of being used: 1/2. Each reference to the 'great soldier Orcs' is going to be considered as a separate trial, with equal probability that the term 'Uruk' or 'Uruk-hai' is used. As far as I can tell, this follows a Bernoulli distribution, with p=0.5, and q=0.5. For the Isengard Orcs, the probability turns out to be 1/64- six 'trials', all of which use the term 'Uruk-hai'. For the Mordor Orcs the probability turns out to be 1/2- one 'trial', which used the term 'Uruk'. The total probability that Tolkien would use the terms as he has in these seven instances, if Uruk and Uruk-hai were truly interchangeable, is 1/128. If Tolkien were to write these chapters 128 times, only once would we expect him to come up with Isengarders always calling themselves 'Uruk-hai', Mordor Orcs calling themselves 'Uruks'. This is not 100% proof of how Tolkien intended to use the terms, especially not by the high standards we've come to expect on this thread. So let's broaden the experiment out again- after all, there are other characters in the books, and there's the narrator.
Additional uses:
Narrator or other character calling Isengarders Uruk-hai: 1 (RotK, reference to Pippin in their clutches)
Narrator or other character calling Isengarders Uruks: 0
Narrator or other character calling Mordor Orcs Uruk-hai: 0
Narrator or other character calling Mordor Orcs Uruks: 6 (FotR p. 421, RotK p. 255, RotK p. 255, Rotk p.256, RotK p.414, RotK p.461)
(Please note I don't have my books here for page numbers- the narrator refers to Pippin in the clutches of the Uruk-hai is from chapter 6 of RotK, 'The Siege of Gondor') The probabilities for this usage of Uruk-hai is then 1/2, and probability for this usage of Uruks is then 1/64. These are still not all that convincing, so let's look at the total probabilities for these 14 usages- 7 times referring to Isengarders as Uruk-hai, 7 times referring to Mordor Orcs as Uruks, no other usages of either terms (that I'm aware of): The chances for these usages is 1/16384. Poor Professor Tolkien would have to write the books 16383 more times before we'd expect to see another such instance of these terms, assuming they're equally likely, i.e. interchangeable. The astute reader will note that one usage of Uruk-hai has been left out- the infamous 'rebel Uruk-hai' passage of RotK p.147, the apple of Tar-Elenion's eye. Being the fearless user of statistics that I am, I will now assume (for the purposes of this calculation only) that 'rebel Uruk-hai' refers to troops of Mordor. The chances of this outcome (assuming the two terms to be interchangeable) is now 15/32768, or 0.046%. If Tolkien were to write the books ten-thousand times, we'd expect 4.6 of those writings to have the same usage as what he actually wrote. If he were 'only' to write the books 100 times, we would not expect to see this usage. In case anybody is interested if 'rebel Uruk-hai' is a mistake by the Higher Ups (as I believe it is), then the probability becomes 1/32768. Again I have to ask: Does anybody here really believe that Tolkien was using these two terms interchangeably? If there is another reason besides the possibility that 'Uruk' and 'Uruk-hai' were different names referring to different breeds of soldier Orc, I'd be interested to hear it.
Originally posted by JeffF.
from previous post.
Why? because Tolkien means for the terms to be interchangeable!
All right, this sort of statement bothers me. Do we really think that Tolkien uses these two terms interchangeably? Well, we can test the usage according to statistics (any statisticians please help me along here- I'm definitely not a statistics expert).
I count the following usages of the Orcs referring to themselves as either Uruks or Uruk-hai:
Isengarders calling themselves Uruk-hai: 6 (TT p. 61, p. 67, p. 68, p. 184, p. 184, p. 184)
Isengarders calling themselves Uruks: 0
Mordor Orcs calling themselves Uruk-hai: 0
Mordor Orcs calling themselves Uruks: 1 (TT p. 441)
Well, there's not that many intstances here, but let's see what we find. I'm going to assume that Uruks and Uruk-hai are interchangeable for the sake of this exercise. Since they are interchangeable, they will have an equal opportunity of being used: 1/2. Each reference to the 'great soldier Orcs' is going to be considered as a separate trial, with equal probability that the term 'Uruk' or 'Uruk-hai' is used. As far as I can tell, this follows a Bernoulli distribution, with p=0.5, and q=0.5. For the Isengard Orcs, the probability turns out to be 1/64- six 'trials', all of which use the term 'Uruk-hai'. For the Mordor Orcs the probability turns out to be 1/2- one 'trial', which used the term 'Uruk'. The total probability that Tolkien would use the terms as he has in these seven instances, if Uruk and Uruk-hai were truly interchangeable, is 1/128. If Tolkien were to write these chapters 128 times, only once would we expect him to come up with Isengarders always calling themselves 'Uruk-hai', Mordor Orcs calling themselves 'Uruks'. This is not 100% proof of how Tolkien intended to use the terms, especially not by the high standards we've come to expect on this thread. So let's broaden the experiment out again- after all, there are other characters in the books, and there's the narrator.
Additional uses:
Narrator or other character calling Isengarders Uruk-hai: 1 (RotK, reference to Pippin in their clutches)
Narrator or other character calling Isengarders Uruks: 0
Narrator or other character calling Mordor Orcs Uruk-hai: 0
Narrator or other character calling Mordor Orcs Uruks: 6 (FotR p. 421, RotK p. 255, RotK p. 255, Rotk p.256, RotK p.414, RotK p.461)
(Please note I don't have my books here for page numbers- the narrator refers to Pippin in the clutches of the Uruk-hai is from chapter 6 of RotK, 'The Siege of Gondor') The probabilities for this usage of Uruk-hai is then 1/2, and probability for this usage of Uruks is then 1/64. These are still not all that convincing, so let's look at the total probabilities for these 14 usages- 7 times referring to Isengarders as Uruk-hai, 7 times referring to Mordor Orcs as Uruks, no other usages of either terms (that I'm aware of): The chances for these usages is 1/16384. Poor Professor Tolkien would have to write the books 16383 more times before we'd expect to see another such instance of these terms, assuming they're equally likely, i.e. interchangeable. The astute reader will note that one usage of Uruk-hai has been left out- the infamous 'rebel Uruk-hai' passage of RotK p.147, the apple of Tar-Elenion's eye. Being the fearless user of statistics that I am, I will now assume (for the purposes of this calculation only) that 'rebel Uruk-hai' refers to troops of Mordor. The chances of this outcome (assuming the two terms to be interchangeable) is now 15/32768, or 0.046%. If Tolkien were to write the books ten-thousand times, we'd expect 4.6 of those writings to have the same usage as what he actually wrote. If he were 'only' to write the books 100 times, we would not expect to see this usage. In case anybody is interested if 'rebel Uruk-hai' is a mistake by the Higher Ups (as I believe it is), then the probability becomes 1/32768. Again I have to ask: Does anybody here really believe that Tolkien was using these two terms interchangeably? If there is another reason besides the possibility that 'Uruk' and 'Uruk-hai' were different names referring to different breeds of soldier Orc, I'd be interested to hear it.