How did 👁️Sauron's misjudgments affect his campaign?

[BalrogRingDestroyer]

This could include even the Second Age, by the way, not just the Third Age.

Do you think it was:

1.) His underestimating the alertness of the Elves with his plans to use his One Ring to control their leaders through the Three Rings.
2.) His losing his fair form after Numenor was sunk, when his plan to have the Numenoreans attack the Elves and the Valar backfired.
3.) His failure to guard Mount Doom and thinking it impossible that anyone would try and destroy the Ring rather than use it.
4.) Him letting Gollum go, rather than taking him out after getting the information from him.
5.) His attacking Minas Tirith before he was ready.
6.) Thinking that nothing could get past Shelob.
7.) Mistakenly believing that the Ring was somehow lost, possibly beyond recall, albeit not destroyed, and thus not looking for it sooner, allowing Deagol to find it before he did.
8.) Underestimating the Last Alliance and getting his body destroyed a second time.
9.) Thinking that a dubious "ally" like Saruman would ultimately prove more useful than harmful to his grand designs.
10.) Other

 

[Ent]

Notes:
1. It is hard to separate #3 anf #8, as the 'last alliance' was nothing but a distraction to keep Sauron's eyes focused elsewhere. it was #3 'destroying his body.'
2. It is hard to include #7 because Sauron was unable to begin to take shape again until the ring was actually found. And it was quite some time after that, (hundreds of years), before he was able to start taking shape again enough to be of concern, the White Council driving him from South Mirkwood. Then, he didn't really know the Ring had been found until he tortured Gollum.

For Huorn, the two answers are both under #10 Other, though the first one well precedes the events of 'the war of the Ring'.
A1: His first mistake was abandoning his faith in Eru, then abandoning his goodness, turning from serevanthood to Aule to servanthood to Melkor.
A2: His seccond huge mistake, was after Melkor's demise, eventually putting his faith in a Ring he created.

By pouring so much of his power into that Ring, he did not just become Master of the Rings (though he needed to subdue the 3 to become their master)...
He became slave to the ring as well.

His very existence depended on his always having possession of it... which he could not guarantee... a very silly thing to put one's faith in.
His slavery to the ring kept him ever fearful, ever concerned about where it was, who might use it and try to usurp his postion, etc.

Yes, his blindness to the issue someone would actually try to destroy it was, for him, 'unfortunate,' but had he not enslaved himself to it to begin with it would have been no problem.

One of the two great fundamentals of Tolkien's work is Faith. Where is one putting one's faith.

Melkors faith was in himself... his own wisdom and power, a good portion of which he poured into the very earth itself, and much into controlling his slaves. As we read, the very elements of the earth will now never be free from his corruption until it's remade at the end. Ea was Melkor's 'ring' to which he chose to enslave himself. And he himself was where he chose to put his faith.

Sauron's faith was first in Melkor, followed later by his faith in himself, his clevernous, and his power... which like Melkor he too, split... pouring his into the Ring to corrupt all peoples and make them his own, where Melkor's first primary goal was to corrupt all Ea and bend it to his will.

Misplacement of Faith. That was Sauron's destruction, and the greatest of the two things on which Tolkien built his work.

 

[Glorfindel Goldtress]

Misplacement of Faith. That was Sauron's destruction, and the greatest of the two things on which Tolkien built his work.

I definitely agree with you Huorn! It seems also Sauron had a lack of faith in the Valar. The time when he tells Eönwë that he is considering repentance, he rejects the request that he return to Valinor and submit to their judgment...

When Thangorodrim was broken and Morgoth overthrown, Sauron put on his fair hue again and did obeisance to Eönwë, the herald of Manwë, and abjured all his evil deeds. And some hold that this was not at first falsely done, but that Sauron in truth repented, if only out of fear, being dismayed by the fall of Morgoth and the great wrath of the Lords of the West. But it was not within the power of Eönwë to pardon those of his own order, and he commanded Sauron to return to Aman and there receive the judgment of Manwë. Then Sauron was ashamed, and he was unwilling to return in humiliation and to receive from the Valar a sentence, it might be, of long servitude in proof of his good faith; for under Morgoth his power had been great. Therefore when Eönwë departed he hid himself in Middle-earth; and he fell back into evil, for the bonds that Morgoth had laid upon him were very strong.
- J.R.R. Tolkien, Of the Rings of Power and the Third Age

Now I have to ask, what would you say is the other greatest thing Tolkien built his work on?

 

[ZehnWaters]

#3 He could have endured as long as his Ring did even with all of the other mistakes.

 

[Radaghast]

1. I don't know if this was anything that led to his ultimate defeat. I think it caused more grief for the Elves than it did for him.
2. This was not a choice, so cannot be considered a mistake. He simply lost the ability.
3. Probably. Thinking anyone would want to destroy the Ring was perhaps the height of hubris. However, his enemies had the opportunity to destroy it in the Second Age when there was nobody to stop them, yet they didn't, so Sauron perhaps can be excused for not considering his enemies might try it with his domain heavily guarded and swarming with orcs.
4. Well, it was perhaps wise to let Gollum go because he would possibly lead his minions to the Ring. He didn't account for the craftiness of Gollum, which was definitely a mistake, though maybe not his biggest one.
5. I don't know if he was not ready for this. At this juncture I think he was basically toying with Gondor.
6. See #3. He wasn't in control of Shelob and wouldn't have expected anyone to try to enter that way anyway.
7. He possibly hadn't begun to reincarnate yet.
8. I don't think his underestimating his enemies had anything to do with it. Correctly estimating them would probably still result in his defeat. They simply powerful enough to outlast him.
9. I don't see how corrupting Saruman was a key factor in his defeat.
10. Killing Shagrat (or having him killed) was an odd move, and it is unclear to me both why he did it and why it wasn't included in the book. But it's unclear what intel was imparted by Shagrat before he was killed. Did he tell Sauron about Sam? If so, did this not set any cogs working in his brain? Did he continue to believe the hobbits were just spies? This leads to the point of another fatal mistake, possibly his worst: underestimating hobbits.

 

[ZehnWaters]

For Huorn, the two answers are both under #10 Other, though the first one well precedes the events of 'the war of the Ring'.
A1: His first mistake was abandoning his faith in Eru, then abandoning his goodness, turning from serevanthood to Aule to servanthood to Melkor.
A2: His seccond huge mistake, was after Melkor's demise, eventually putting his faith in a Ring he created.

One could argue his 2nd mistake was not repenting when he was offered it by Eonwë. He WANTED to but was too prideful to submit to the Valar rather than his peers.

 

[Radaghast]

One could argue his 2nd mistake was not repenting when he was offered it by Eonwë. He WANTED to but was too prideful to submit to the Valar rather than his peers.

This was also a mistake on Eonwë's (or Tolkien's) part. Just because Eonwë couldn't pardon or condemn Sauron doesn't mean he couldn't bring him in. Just like a cop can't pass sentence on a criminal but can arrest them for crimes.

 

[1stvermont]

This could include even the Second Age, by the way, not just the Third Age.

Do you think it was:

1.) His underestimating the alertness of the Elves with his plans to use his One Ring to control their leaders through the Three Rings.
2.) His losing his fair form after Numenor was sunk, when his plan to have the Numenoreans attack the Elves and the Valar backfired.
3.) His failure to guard Mount Doom and thinking it impossible that anyone would try and destroy the Ring rather than use it.
4.) Him letting Gollum go, rather than taking him out after getting the information from him.
5.) His attacking Minas Tirith before he was ready.
6.) Thinking that nothing could get past Shelob.
7.) Mistakenly believing that the Ring was somehow lost, possibly beyond recall, albeit not destroyed, and thus not looking for it sooner, allowing Deagol to find it before he did.
8.) Underestimating the Last Alliance and getting his body destroyed a second time.
9.) Thinking that a dubious "ally" like Saruman would ultimately prove more useful than harmful to his grand designs.
10.) Other

If i had to chose from the list it would be number 3. In many ways his pride (which caused a rejection of Eru, to be a "God" a tyrant like Morgoth, led to his downfall) is what did him in.

 

[ZehnWaters]

This was also a mistake on Eonwë's (or Tolkien's) part. Just because Eonwë couldn't pardon or condemn Sauron doesn't mean he couldn't bring him in. Just like a cop can't pass sentence on a criminal but can arrest them for crimes.

Oh, it was on Eonwë's part. He likely thought Sauron's would submit now that Melkor was defeated utterly. It seems he had Sauron under control but Sauron simply escaped when he didn't want to be judged by the Valar.

 

[Radaghast]

Well, sure, but I can't help but think this bit could have been developed more by Tolkien. It comes off as a bit weak to me.

 

[Olorgando]

I'll also go with 3), as it was his inability to think like his enemies that was his undoing. Using the Ring, yes, destroying it, no.
Actually, when Sam and Frodo peeped over the inner, lower mountain range after escaping from the Tower of Cirith Ungol, they noticed that the shorter way from the pass Mount Doom was basically guarded, by a whole lot of military camps. Which would certainly be on the alert, as we must assume that Shagrat took that way, as is was also the shortest way to Barad-dûr. Sauron assuming the small force heading for the Black Gate was led by the new Ring-bearer - only then did he move all of the forces to the Black Gate, leaving the plain around Mount Doom unguarded. Which was basically the slight hope Gandalf and Aragorn had.

 

[Ent]

Now I have to ask, what would you say is the other greatest thing Tolkien built his work on?

Here we tread into potentially dangerous waters... but Huorn fears tread he must.
The 2nd greatest thing Tolkien wants us to derive from his work is Eru's Providence.

This comes out in SO many ways... SO many things... again right from start of Hobbit to end of LoTR, and certainly in SIL.

I'd say 'wait until the book comes out and you see the Appendix being written"... but that's going to be awhile.
If curious, when I have a little time, I'll try to 'build the case' in a few key quotes, a couple from each of them.

Even the syntax of the language Tolkien chooses to use, leaves it clear he's speaking of 'external' influences at ceertain points, rather than 'internally made' decisions...

This is why he said he was "laboring over the words" of LoTR, "considering each one."

Word meaning (at the time written) and the syntax of how those words are put together. If they were so crucial to him, so should they be to us.

So his two key factors to convey" Faith, and providence. (NOT 'good and evil. These are but the result of decisions... decisions about where you put your faith, and trusting in someone greater than yourself to hold everything together.)

 

[Glorfindel Goldtress]

The 2nd greatest thing Tolkien wants us to derive from his work is Eru's Providence.

The instant you said that, so many passages come to mind! Especially the one in which Frodo and Gandalf speak about their being meant to find the ring.

“Frodo: 'It's a pity Bilbo didn't kill Gollum when he had the chance.'​

Gandalf: 'Pity? It's a pity that stayed Bilbo's hand. Many that live deserve death. Some that die deserve life. Can you give it to them, Frodo? Do not be too eager to deal out death in judgment. Even the very wise cannot see all ends. My heart tells me that Gollum has some part to play in it, for good or evil, before this is over. The pity of Bilbo may rule the fate of many.' Frodo: 'I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.'​

Gandalf: 'So do all who live to see such times, but that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides that of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring, in which case you were also meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought.”​

- J.R.R Tolkien, The Shadow of the Past​

A higher power at work indeed.

And as you said, often, there is a controversy. I see that especially with the part about Gollum. Some like to say that Eru "pushed" Gollum over the edge. But the way I see it, is that it is not necessarily the case. Yes, it is by Eru's grace that it occurred, but this does not mean He was the direct, physical causation of Gollum's fall. Gollum chose the course that he did, and those were the results. His free will had a consequence, and that was it. And on the contrary, maybe if it was so, saying that Eru did push Gollum, then others could say Gollum's unrepentance got him what he deserved by Eru's hand... but that could make people upset with Eru. And that would be misunderstanding and turning a gift into something sour, I believe.

 

[Ent]

@Glorfindel Goldtress - ah, you stand on the edge of tremendous understanding.

Note in your own passage above, this piece.
..."All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides that of evil".

The time that is GIVEN us. Both Tolkien's syntax and wording direct, and without other available intrepretation.
This is directly from Ephesians and Colossians, clearly representing two things:
1. Gandalf's faith is in Eru, and he knows the time we have is a Gift from Eru. it's not ours... it's given to us to use for the purpose Eru created it for. Our decision is to 'decide what that purpose is'.
2. Gandalf recognizes each moment is a point of 'providence'. it has been created with a purpose and handed to us to use.

Now Sauron would choose for himself how he intended to use that moment, in further evil pursuits, creating new Olag-hai, bigger flying beasts, etc. Sauron's faith is in himself, and himself alone. So, he bends everything to what he can bend it to, by the power of his own 'force and will.' (That is, by this time his faith was in himself alone. Originally his faith was in Eru and he was servant to Manwe, whom he trusted. But he was deceived by a False Prophet.. Melkor. Ultimately he abandoned faith in Eru and trust in Manwe, and put his faith and trust both in Melkor. Then, he never repented, turning his faith back to Eru when given the opportunity Eru always gives... thus, again, deciding to keep his faith in himself, he is cast into the outer darkness.)

Gandalf, on the other hand, considers and decides "what to do with the time that is given us." In other words, he seeks the options and alternatives and possibly even prays (gasp)... though Tolkien avoids any direct references to this. AND he's well aware "there are other forces at work in this world..." and he doesn't mean himself..!!

Tolkien's words, and HOW HE PUTS THEM TOGETHER< is critical to 'getting to deeper levels.'

(I could provide many, even those during and following the riddle game, but well... I refrain.)

 

[Glorfindel Goldtress]

he time that is GIVEN us. Both Tolkien's syntax and wording direct, and without other available intrepretation.
This is directly from Ephesians and Colossians, clearly representing two things:
1. Gandalf's faith is in Eru, and he knows the time we have is a Gift from Eru. it's not ours... it's given to us to use for the purpose Eru created it for. Our decision is to 'decide what that purpose is'.
2. Gandalf recognizes each moment is a point of 'providence'. it has been created with a purpose and handed to us to use.
...

Yes! Gandalf's direct reliance on Providence, or Eru, is exactly as you said: He knows that all time comes as a gift from Eru, and that our choices will shape the course of our lives... all within the hand of Eru (though we are able to go our own way). Even if we choose to put our faith in ourselves as Sauron did. One of my favorite passages that reminds me of Eru's sovereignty is in the Ainulindalë:

"And thou, Melkor, shall see that no theme may be played that hath not its uttermost source in me, nor can any alter the music in my despite. For he that attempteth this shall prove but mine instrument in the devising of things more wonderful, which he himself hath not imagined."
- J.R.R. Tolkien, Ainulindalë

It goes back to my statement on Gollum, who followed, enticed, after his own desires... and those desires fully grown... gave forth to death of him and the Ring. Gollum thought he was moving for his own gain, but his choices that he made yet moved within the Great Music! Pretty incredible and powerful.

 

[Valandil]

Doesn't matter. If he had done differently for any - or all - of those things, something else would have happened to see him fall. You might say it was meant to be. "Providence" - or "Eru" - or "God" - would have pulled the right strings to see it through.

 

[Deimos]

Doesn't matter. If he had done differently for any - or all - of those things, something else would have happened to see him fall. You might say it was meant to be. "Providence" - or "Eru" - or "God" - would have pulled the right strings to see it through.

That's the way I understand it.
Let's say you plan to invite a friend over, and that friend is an alcoholic.
If you have liquor/beer etc around he may be tempted to indulge.
He has free will, (altho' it may take a mighty effort to resist the temptation), but th choice is ultimately his.

However, you know your friend well and, as an act of kindness, remove the alcohol from [his] access before he arrives.
You haven't violated his free will, you haven't forcibly restrained him from grabbing a flask or bottle.
You have simply altered the situation such that your friend will not act in a way that you don't want him to act.
The converse can be true also; i.e., setting up a situation such that a person will do something (positive action) that you prefer him to do.

 

[Aldarion]

1. It is hard to separate #3 anf #8, as the 'last alliance' was nothing but a distraction to keep Sauron's eyes focused elsewhere. it was #3 'destroying his body.'

That is wrong, Last Alliance was Gil-Galad and Elendil. "Distraction" bit was expedition led by Aragorn.

Anyway, Sauron's biggest mistake was inability to understand that people might think differently from him... that they may decide to try and destroy the One Ring.

 

[Ent]

Last Alliance was Gil-Galad and Elendil.

All too true on this part. Though I don't understand 'getting his body destroyed a 2nd time" in connection with the Last Alliance. Wasn't that the first time his body was destroyed?

 

[Radaghast]

All too true on this part. Though I don't understand 'getting his body destroyed a 2nd time" in connection with the Last Alliance. Wasn't that the first time his body was destroyed?

The first time was with the sinking of Númenor.