👁️Sauron's Plans & Númenórean populations

[ZehnWaters]

Okay, so what was Sauron's plans post Valinor invasion? Just declare himself King of Númenor too? Go back to Mordor? Bask in his glory as high priest of Númenor while raking in the tributes from Middle-Earth? It kinda just seems like his plans ended when the ships left and he just happened to still be on the island when it sank.

Speaking of the sinking, am I to assume Elendil's survivors were rather...small in number? They seem to have been rather productive in their 100 year post-sinking peace. Though, if they built Annúminas, Minas Ithil, Minas Anor, & Orthanc, they can't have been that small in number. I'm assuming they had other Faithful to draw from in Tharbad & Pelargir? Or did they just conquer the extant men in the regions they landed in and use them to make up the population of their kingdoms?

 

[Tar-Elenion]

"After a thousand years the population seems not to have much exceeded 2 million. This was greatly increased later; but outlet was found in the Númenórean settlements in Middle-earth. Before the Downfall the population of Númenor itself may have been as many as 15 million."
NoMe, Of the Land and Beasts of Númenor

 

[Hisoka Morrow]

Here, this is the link

Speaking of the sinking, am I to assume Elendil's survivors were rather...small in number? They seem to have been rather productive in their 100 year post-sinking peace, though, if they build Annúminas, Minas Ithil, Minas Anor, & Orthanc all in that time they can't have been that small in number. I'm assuming they had other Faithful to draw from in Tharbad & Pelargir? Or did they just conquer the extant men in the regions they landed in and use them to make up the population of their kingdoms?

Yes, before Elendil's expedition to ME, a variety of reasons such as early Numenor's colonization before their corruption, King's Men persecution forcing the Faithful's immigration into ME, and so on, the Numenor politicaland military power provided enough resources for Elendil to stand his own. I'll provide further sources after finding them, for my campus internet are making the firewall stricter.

Okay, so what was Sauron's plans post Valinor invasion? Just declare himself King of Númenor too? Go back to Mordor? Bask in his glory as high priest of Númenor while raking in the tributes from Middle-Earth? It kinda just seems like his plans ended when the ships left and he just happened to still me on the island when it sank?

Survival, only, at least in the first palces. According to the Similarion, Sauron's surrendur's reason was only that he certainly knew he's a piece of cake before Numenor in the present, making him have no choices but submitting himself. It's the Numenor's own corruption make Sauron find out he still got a card to play.

 

[Olorgando]

His plans most likely were aimed at weakening Númenor so that it could never again scare the willies out of his Middle-earth subjects as it had done by Ar-Pharazôn's invasion of Middle-earth in 3261 Second Age. As Sauron stayed well away from Valinor, knowing there were powers there that he didn't have the ghost of a chance against - besides Eonwë, Aulë and Tulkas think of Yavanna as an Ent to the nth power, who would probably have casually squashed his bodily form like we squash a fly or mosquito - he must have expected Ar-Pharazôn's expedition to fail. But showing his imagination to be limited, as before and again later, he probably thought that ridding himself of the Númenóreans would have led to one of the outcomes that @ZehnWaters speculates about above.

It's almost certain that the Music of the Ainur stopped well before the downfall of Númenor, and as likely before the War of Wrath that destroyed Angband and (much of?) Beleriand, so that both events came as total surprises to the respective baddies.

 

[ZehnWaters]

"After a thousand years the population seems not to have much exceeded 2 million. This was greatly increased later; but outlet was found in the Númenórean settlements in Middle-earth. Before the Downfall the population of Númenor itself may have been as many as 15 million."
NoMe, Of the Land and Beasts of Númenor

Okay but what was the population of ELENDIL'S people and what was their population in North-West Middle-Earth? Heck, what was it in Umbar? What even WERE their other Southern settlements and what happened to them?

Survival, only, at least in the first palces. According to the Similarion, Sauron's surrendur's reason was only that he certainly knew he's a piece of cake before Numenor in the present, making him have no choices but submitting himself. It's the Numenor's own corruption make Sauron find out he still got a card to play.

Okay but, like, then what? He corrupts the Númenóreans, they sail to Valinor....and then what? He just chills in Númenor and enjoys his new-found position?

It's almost certain that the Music of the Ainur stopped well before the downfall of Númenor, and as likely before the War of Wrath that destroyed Angband and (much of?) Beleriand, so that both events came as total surprises to the respective baddies.

It'd explain a lot.

 

[Tar-Elenion]

Okay but what was the population of ELENDIL'S people and what was their population in North-West Middle-Earth? Heck, what was it in Umbar? What even WERE their other Southern settlements and what happened to them?

What I quoted is the information from Tolkien. Anything else is speculation.

 

[ZehnWaters]

What I quoted is the information from Tolkien. Anything else is speculation.

Correct, if Tolkien has been silent on an issue what I'm asking for is speculation.

 

[Hisoka Morrow]

Okay but, like, then what? He corrupts the Númenóreans, they sail to Valinor....and then what? He just chills in Númenor and enjoys his new-found position?

Yes, that's all, the only Sauron's goal was no more than ruling whole ME from the start to the end. Without the Numenor, the only estimated competive power standing in his way, Sauron was the highest power of whole ME, at least according to his estimation. Since Sauron had already become the prime minister, the highest power of the whole Numenor apart from it's king, it didn't matter that what political title he got further.
After all, according to his surprise cuased by the power-growth of Gil-galad before the war of the Last Alliance, Sauron obviously estimated that he had destroyed anything in the way of his hegamony as the Numenor was destroyed.

 

[Aldarion]

It's almost certain that the Music of the Ainur stopped well before the downfall of Númenor, and as likely before the War of Wrath that destroyed Angband and (much of?) Beleriand, so that both events came as total surprises to the respective baddies.

Possible, but not necessary. Remember that the Music of the Ainur never gave any details on humans and their involvement; humans alone are not bound by fate, and their destiny only Eru knows. This means that human actions will have been impossible to predict from the Music anyway, so even without Music ending at all, said events - both of which had heavy human involvement - may have come as a surprise to baddies nonetheless.

 

[Ent]

And many other things Ilúvatar spoke to the Ainur at that time, and because of their memory of his words, and the knowledge that each has of the music that he himself made, the Ainur know much of what was, and is, and is to come, and few things are unseen by them. Yet some things there are that they cannot see, neither alone nor taking counsel together; for to none but himself has Ilúvatar revealed all that he has in store, and in every age there come forth things that are new and have no foretelling, for they do not proceed from the past. And so it was that as this vision of the World was played before them, the Ainur saw that it contained things which they had not thought. And they saw with amazement the coming of the Children of Ilúvatar, and the habitation that was prepared for them; and they perceived that they themselves in the labour of their music had been busy with the preparation of this dwelling, and yet knew not that it had any purpose beyond its own beauty. For the Children of Ilúvatar were conceived by him alone; and they came with the third theme, and were not in the theme which Ilúvatar propounded at the beginning, and none of the Ainur had part in their making. Therefore when they beheld them, the more did they love them, being things other than themselves, strange and free, wherein they saw the mind of Ilúvatar reflected anew, and learned yet a little more of his wisdom, which otherwise had been hidden even from the Ainur. Tolkien, J.R.R.. The Silmarillion (pp. 6-7). HarperCollins. Kindle Edition.

This writing says so much we have a tendency to overlook its full breadth and impact at times.
And it refers to all the Children, not just the humans... so.... well... there it is.

 

[Aldarion]

And many other things Ilúvatar spoke to the Ainur at that time, and because of their memory of his words, and the knowledge that each has of the music that he himself made, the Ainur know much of what was, and is, and is to come, and few things are unseen by them. Yet some things there are that they cannot see, neither alone nor taking counsel together; for to none but himself has Ilúvatar revealed all that he has in store, and in every age there come forth things that are new and have no foretelling, for they do not proceed from the past. And so it was that as this vision of the World was played before them, the Ainur saw that it contained things which they had not thought. And they saw with amazement the coming of the Children of Ilúvatar, and the habitation that was prepared for them; and they perceived that they themselves in the labour of their music had been busy with the preparation of this dwelling, and yet knew not that it had any purpose beyond its own beauty. For the Children of Ilúvatar were conceived by him alone; and they came with the third theme, and were not in the theme which Ilúvatar propounded at the beginning, and none of the Ainur had part in their making. Therefore when they beheld them, the more did they love them, being things other than themselves, strange and free, wherein they saw the mind of Ilúvatar reflected anew, and learned yet a little more of his wisdom, which otherwise had been hidden even from the Ainur. Tolkien, J.R.R.. The Silmarillion (pp. 6-7). HarperCollins. Kindle Edition.

This writing says so much we have a tendency to overlook its full breadth and impact at times.
And it refers to all the Children, not just the humans... so.... well... there it is.

Yet that passage seems to be a bit contradicted by these:

HoME Vol 1:

'Lo! After the departure of these Ainur and their vassalage all was quiet for a great age while Iluvatar watched. Then on a sudden he said: "Behold I love the world, and it is a hall of play for Eldar and Men who are my beloved. But when the Eldar come they will be the fairest and the most lovely of all things by far; and deeper in the knowledge of beauty, and happier than Men. But to Men I will give a new gift, and a greater." Therefore he devised that Men should have a free virtue whereby within the limits of the powers and substances and chances of the world they might fashion and design their life beyond even the original Music of the Ainur that is as fate to all things else. This he did that of their operations everything should in shape and deed be completed, and the world fulfilled unto the last and smallest. Lo! Even we Eldar have found to our sorrow that Men have a strange power for good or ill and for turning things despite Gods and Fairies to their mood in the world; so that we say: "Fate may not conquer the Children of Men, but yet are they strangely blind, whereas their joy should be great."

Silmarillion:

Now all is said concerning the manner of the Earth and its rulers in the beginning of days, and ere the world became such as the Children of Ilúvatar have known it. For Elves and Men are the Children of Ilúvatar; and since they understood not fully that theme by which the Children entered into the Music, none of the Ainur dared to add anything to their fashion. For which reason the Valar are to these kindreds rather their elders and their chieftains than their masters; and if ever in their dealings with Elves and Men the Ainur have endeavoured to force them when they would not be guided, seldom has this turned to good, howsoever good the intent. The dealings of the Ainur have indeed been mostly with the Elves, for Ilúvatar made them more like in nature to the Ainur, though less in might and stature; whereas to Men he gave strange gifts.

For it is said that after the departure of the Valar there was silence, and for an age Ilúvatar sat alone in thought. Then he spoke and said: 'Behold I love the Earth, which shall be a mansion for the Quendi and the Atani! But the Quendi shall be the fairest of all earthly creatures, and they shall have and shall conceive and bring forth more beauty than all my Children; and they shall have the greater bliss in this world. But to the Atani I will give a new gift.' Therefore he willed that the hearts of Men should seek beyond the world and should find no rest therein; but they should have a virtue to shape their life, amid the powers and chances of the world, beyond the Music of the Ainur, which is as fate to all things else; and of their operation everything should be, in form and deed, completed, and the world fulfilled unto the last and smallest.

But Ilúvatar knew that Men, being set amid the turmoils of the powers of the world, would stray often, and would not use their gifts in harmony; and he said: ''These too in their time shall find that all that they do redounds at the end only to the glory of my work.' Yet the Elves believe that Men are often a grief to Manwë, who knows most of the mind of Ilúvatar; for it seems to the Elves that Men resemble Melkor most of all the Ainur, although he has ever feared and hated them, even those that served him.

It is one with this gift of freedom that the children of Men dwell only a short space in the world alive, and are not bound to it, and depart soon whither the Elves know not. Whereas the Elves remain until the end of days, and their love of the Earth and all the world is more single and more poignant therefore, and as the years lengthen ever more sorrowful. For the Elves die not till tile world dies, unless they are slain or waste in grief (and to both these seeming deaths they are subject); neither does age subdue their strength, unless one grow weary of ten thousand centuries; and dying they are gathered to the halls of Mandos in Valinor, whence they may in time return. But the sons of Men die indeed, and leave the world; wherefore they are called the Guests, or the Strangers. Death is their fate, the gift of Ilúvatar, which as Time wears even the Powers shall envy. But Melkor has cast his shadow upon it, and confounded it with darkness, and brought forth evil out of good, and fear out of hope. Yet of old the Valar declared to the Elves in Valinor that Men shall join in the Second Music of the Ainur; whereas Ilúvatar has not revealed what he purposes for the Elves after the World's end, and Melkor has not discovered it

So it seems to be yet another of unresolved-Tolkien-issues.

Or maybe I or both of us are misunderstanding something.

 

[Ent]

Thank you. I shall devour the paragraphs (and their surrounds) in depth 'soon'.

The Great Halls of Speculation have been reconstructed, and admissions are pouring in....there being no lack of contestants for the boxes, bins and shelf space available and ready for cataloguing and retention.

 

[ZehnWaters]

I'm going to assume that the ships were this big, judging by how much they carried with them:

PHOTOS: World’s largest sailing ship built in Split in full sail for first time

Flying C

www.croatiaweek.com

 

[Aldarion]

I'm going to assume that the ships were this big, judging by how much they carried with them:

PHOTOS: World’s largest sailing ship built in Split in full sail for first time

Flying C

www.croatiaweek.com

View attachment 26662

Probably. Numenoreans did have tall ships, after all:

Navy in Middle-Earth

Introduction Despite not featuring prominently, navy and naval operations play a significant role in Tolkien’s Middle Earth. In the First Age, elves of Feanor come to Middle Earth from Valino…

fantasyview.wordpress.com

 

[Squint-eyed Southerner]

There are also the Ming Dynasty treasure ships, which I mentioned in an old thread.

Whether they were really that big is a matter of dispute, but certainly larger than contemporary European ships.

 

[Olorgando]

There are also the Ming Dynasty treasure ships, which I mentioned in an old thread.
Whether they were really that big is a matter of dispute, but certainly larger than contemporary European ships.

They popped into my mind too, but the largest seem to have been 100 meters (330 feet) long, more typically 70 meters (231 feet).

I have a dim memory of some iron-hulled bulk cargo sailing ships that overlapped with the tea clippers of the mid-19th century. The most famous of the latter being the "Cutty Sark", a real race-horse, with an overall length of 85 meters (280 feet) ...

... ah, here we go, article "Iron-hulled sailing ships", which stayed competitive with (coal-fired) steamships on some very long routes (Australia-Europe) into the interwar period of the 20th century. The behemoth among these was the steel-hulled "Preussen", a five-master of 147 meters (482 feet) overall, and capable of a load of 8000 tons. The advantage these ships had on the ultra-distances was not needing to stop for refueling with coal - and fresh water for the boilers, often forgotten by non-specialists! And they were often even faster than the cargo steamships of their time (and even later), as some managed average speeds of 16 knots in transatlantic crossings - something only topped by passenger liners, but by hardly any cargo ships before WW II.

 

[ZehnWaters]

There are also the Ming Dynasty treasure ships, which I mentioned in an old thread.
View attachment 26689
Whether they were really that big is a matter of dispute, but certainly larger than contemporary European ships.

Yes. If memory serves, though, they are thought to have only been used on river-ways because their size would cause buckling when caught between waves.

 

[Hisoka Morrow]

Whether they were really that big is a matter of dispute, but certainly larger than contemporary European ships.

But treasure ship's size didn't match Numenorean naval military purposes, unless for logistic reasons. Might these Numenorean warships size match mobile naval fortress in the battle of PO-YANG lake in 1363 AD more?

 

[Hisoka Morrow]

Probably. Numenoreans did have tall ships, after all:

Navy in Middle-Earth

Introduction Despite not featuring prominently, navy and naval operations play a significant role in Tolkien’s Middle Earth. In the First Age, elves of Feanor come to Middle Earth from Valino…

fantasyview.wordpress.com

They popped into my mind too, but the largest seem to have been 100 meters (330 feet) long, more typically 70 meters (231 feet).

I have a dim memory of some iron-hulled bulk cargo sailing ships that overlapped with the tea clippers of the mid-19th century. The most famous of the latter being the "Cutty Sark", a real race-horse, with an overall length of 85 meters (280 feet) ...

... ah, here we go, article "Iron-hulled sailing ships", which stayed competitive with (coal-fired) steamships on some very long routes (Australia-Europe) into the interwar period of the 20th century. The behemoth among these was the steel-hulled "Preussen", a five-master of 147 meters (482 feet) overall, and capable of a load of 8000 tons. The advantage these ships had on the ultra-distances was not needing to stop for refueling with coal - and fresh water for the boilers, often forgotten by non-specialists! And they were often even faster than the cargo steamships of their time (and even later), as some managed average speeds of 16 knots in transatlantic crossings - something only topped by passenger liners, but by hardly any cargo ships before WW II.

Some of the most suspicous things might include combat use, after all, the only Numenorean arty mentioned were nothing but their MLRS instead of "line arty of battleships". If that's so, too much height seemed to be unfit their naval tactics, after all, MLRS seemed to fit deck-shotting platform instead of the side-bulk of the ships.

 

[Squint-eyed Southerner]

I'd need to look up the reference, but I originally mentioned these ships in a thread speculating on the possible size of those taken by Elendil to Middle-earth.

There's also the matter of the vast quantities of timber shipped back to Numenor, which deforested great swaths of territory. I suppose that might be called "logistic". In any event, if the Numenoreans were capable of building them, they'd want the largest capacity possible.