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Lindon and the Grey Havens

You’re right, Noldor_returned, it does appear as if Sauron had an immediate attack planned against Lindon. After the death of Smaug, whom Gandalf suspected Sauron planned to use against Rivendell, it does not appear that he was able to launch an assault against Rivendell, either. There were three attacks against Lórien, one of them coordinated with an attack against the Elf-kingdom of Thranduil. Lindon was effectively protected by buffer states (Thranduil, Rivendell, Lórien, and possibly the Beornings and even to a lesser extent the Shire): it appears at first to have been out of Sauron’s reach.

If I may be so bold, I think this what Sauron might have planned.
  • Using Smaug, he could ravage Thranduil’s little realm by destroying most of the Elves in his capital.
  • This was along the route to Rivendell, which is what Gandalf told Frodo and his friends in Minas Tirith after the coronation that he believed was Sauron’s target for Smaug (see “Quest of Erebor” in Unfinished Tales).
  • The attacks on Lórien were doomed to fail “unless Sauron had come there himself.” (Return of the King, “Appendix B”) However, had Gandalf not killed the Balrog, I think it is very likely that it would have joined the attacks, and Lórien fallen.
  • Gandalf stood in the Gate of Minas Tirith and prevented the Witch-king’s leading his armies to triumph: had they entered Minas Tirith, when Aragorn arrived later in the day, he would have found the outer walls held against him, and victory would have been Sauron’s: the situation might have been much like the defeat of the Northern Dúnedain in Fornost, where the city was somehow breached and the Witch-king entered in and destroyed it. That certainly seems to have been Sauron’s general plan against Gondor.
  • With Rivendell, Lórien, and Gondor out of the way, Sauron could then launch a considerable attack against Lindon by marching his Dol Guldur army over the Redhorn Pass and his Minas Morgul army with its Easterling and Southron allies up the old Númenórean road, the Greenway. Although there was no longer any bridge at Tharbad, the Witch-king’s army was able to bridge Anduin, a greater river, probably using pontoons (in this case, a bridge built across boats lashed together): Lindon would likely have stood little chance against the two armies, possibly with the reinforcement of both the dragon and the Balrog.
Of course, Thorin & Co., with the aid of Bard the Bowman, rather upset Sauron’s plans to use Smaug against Rivendell; and Gandalf slew the Balrog, quite possibly in the process saving Lórien from an attack it could not have overcome. Had either of these two monsters not been destroyed, I think Sauron would have succeeded in at least one of the prongs of his attack against the Elves. It is quite possible - even likely - that Lindon would have been the next target, and that it would have fallen.
 
Alcuin, I agree with your assessment on the strategy of Sauron with one exception. I cannot seem to find the reference at this time (perhaps someone can find it for me), but I remember Gandalf suggesting that the only way Sauron could control the Balrogs were to gain control of the ring. I surmise that he deeply desired their strength and power but without the extra power of the ring, (I believe) there would be no way for him to control such beasts. But this discussion is for another thread.
 
Again, anything we can say about the strategies of either Sauron or Saruman is mere speculation rather than fact. That in mind, I always believed that both were planning to double-cross the other.

Sauron was planning to use Saruman's position and strength to help weaken and distract Gondor so that when he attacked Gondor, it would fall. Then he would move his army north and destroy Saruman (or enslave him). There is no way (in my opinion) that Sauron would "share" the power, he wanted it ALL for himself.

Saruman had been corrupted by the power of the ring. By the LotR, he was as enslaved by it as the ringwraths. But he wanted the power for himself, making it his precious. He was dedicating all his power and influence to find the ring; and once found he would use it to enslave the world - including Sauron.

Really good question. I'd love to hear other's views on this.
 
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I also just thought of this, but they would have had enough warning to flee on the ships, so there may not have been much point to any attack by Sauron, except in gaining territory.
 
Noldor_returned said:
I also just thought of this, but they would have had enough warning to flee on the ships, so there may not have been much point to any attack by Sauron, except in gaining territory.
You know, N_r, I’m not certain they could flee in such a fashion, at least not in great numbers. The ships they sailed to the Uttermost West were different from their usual vessels, I believe. In Letter 325, written in 1971, Tolkien said that they were
ships specially made and hallowed for this voyage, and steered due West towards the ancient site of these lands. They only set out after sundown… [and] …followed the straight road to the true West and not the bent road of the earth’s surface. As it vanished it left the physical world. There was no return. The Elves who took this road … had abandoned the ‘History of the world’ and could play no further part in it.
The implication is that building such a vessel took time and skill, skills not all the Elves possessed. Since Círdan the Shipwright is supposed to have left on the last ship to Eldamar, I guess that the knowledge and skill to build such craft ended in Middle-earth with his departure; although Legolas constructed one in Ithilien after the death of Aragorn, and sailed in it with Gimli into the West, and he must have learned how to do this somewhere or from someone – Círdan himself, perhaps?

The One Ring was unmade in III 3019, and the Three Rings lost their power to stave off the effects of Time. Elrond and Galadriel left Middle-earth two years later, in III 3021. I think the implication is that it must have taken at least two years to build such a ship. If it took that long to build just one of these ships, and if there were a limited number of Elves who knew how to do it, then it is unlikely that more than a few Elves could escape Lindon in that fashion if Sauron launched an attack against that country.

Deprived of Smaug, whom Gandalf was convinced Sauron planned to use in an attack upon Rivendell (and then perhaps upon Lindon?), by Bard the Bowman after Thorin & Co. stirred him from his long slumber under the Lonely Mountain, I think Lindon was just too far away for Sauron to effectively assail – at least until he re-obtained his Ruling Ring.
 
As for Legolas learning to build his ship, the secret was not lost in Gondor as far as I know. Also, there were the ships from Umbar which were captured, so it isn't as though there wasn't a model to base it on. And the Edain did learn from the Eldar...possibly Cirdan himself.
 
Noldor_returned said:
As for Legolas learning to build his ship, the secret was not lost in Gondor as far as I know. Also, there were the ships from Umbar which were captured, so it isn't as though there wasn't a model to base it on. And the Edain did learn from the Eldar...possibly Cirdan himself.

I believe Alcuin is referring to ships that follow the Straight Road. I highly doubt that ships of the Corsairs were able to follow the Straight Road.

Just my .02
 

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