We're in deep water here: up against the Problem of
Evil itself; the most serious philosophical objection to Monotheistic Religion. Why does a benevolent
God permit evil and suffering?
There are a number of answers many of them most unappealing: either God doesn't exist, doesn't care, or is a sadist; that is, there is not God, only Satan, or
Melkor, if you wish.
Most religions take another way out and say that God permits free-will and that people can chose to be either Good or Evil, and that thus whatever trouble we get into is largely our own fault.
Although this is more attractive than other than the previous options I have always had problems with it. To what extent can someone born into an evil society be said to have choice, or even be aware that they can chose?
And just as important, while in theory you may be able to chose Good over Evil, how can you chose not to be a victim of Evil?
In some cases there is no choice. How does a malnourished seven year old peasant girl in the Middle
Ages chose not to die of dysentery or tuberculosis? How does a Polish Jew chose not die in Hitler's gas-chambers, or an
Elvish warrior not to end up on the Hill of Slain?
So it's a hard one and people have been discussing it for centuries. I think I'll leave it for the theologians and philosophers; and the best of British luck to all of them.
Back to
Beleriand: it is my feeling that an Elvish victory in the Fifth Battle would have crippled
Morgoth. He had put forth most of his remaining power into his
armies and it they had been destroyed I doubt he could have replaced them; or at least it would have taken him hundreds of years.
As it was it was a near-run thing despite everything that went wrong. The Elvish plan was a good one, but was very poorly executed. Things could well have gone differently.
More than anything else numbers matter in war. The
Elves should have raised their numbers close to the carrying capacity of their lands and made sure they had forces capable of crushing Morgoth's hordes whenever they emerged.
Even if it was not comfortable for them to have lots of children they should have made the effort to ensure their own survival. The Elves were fine soldiers, courageous, well-motived and well-armed. If only their had been more of them they could have held onto their lands and kept Morgoth penned up until eventually the
Valar came to remove him.