What were they thinking?

[Confusticated]

Given that Gandalf and Elrond (among others) knew late in the Third Age that Sauron was in Mordor planning to take over Middle-earth and believed (at least Gandalf did) that the One Ring was lost forever, and that after they learn the One Ring has been found they think that Sauron could take over Middle-earth even without it (this seems evident by some things Gandalf says in Rivendell among other things), I do wonder what the wise might have been planning to do about Sauron in the time between his return to Mordor and the discovery of the identity of Frodo's Ring.

How in the world did they suppose Sauron would be stopped? There is no indication of some allience, a Union of the people, planning to attack Mordor, is there? Is there room to suppose this might have been something which was happening but we just don't hear about it? Doesn't seem so to me. Anything in Letters about this?

The whole thing is something that upon reading LotR after reading The Silmarillion, I can not make much sense of.

I think the poeple of Middle-earth got very lucky, and might have been very foolish (especially 'the wise') for apparantly sitting around just waiting for Sauron to strike.

Also we have the word of Gandalf and Elrond in The Hobbit:

The Last Stage
"Ere long now," Gandalf was saying, "'The Forest will grow somewhat more wholesome. The North will be freed from that horror for many long years, I hope. Yet I wish he were banished fom the world!"
"It would be well indeed," said Elrond; "but I fear that will not come about in this age of the world, orfor many after."

Now that is from a later edittion. I wonder if these words were in the first edition?

I have posted before about my ideas for why Gandalf was not able to figure out the identity of the One Ring much ealier than he did. My excuse for him had been that it took him so long because it was an idea so terrifying that Gandalf just couldn't think of it. I don't know how else it could make any sense. But now, I wonder: shouldn't Gandalf have actually hoped the Ring would turn up in good hands? Afterall, he seems to have thought Sauron would take over even without it, but furthermore any defeat of Sauron without ring destruction would be temperary and Gandalf knew it.


And as a side note: Wouldn't Bilbo who loves the old tales, have learned much about the Last Alliance, Isildur, and general stuff about Sauron and the Rings of Power? He even knew the story of Gil-galad before he moved out of Bag End. Isn't it likely Bilbo had heard the tale about Isildur's death and the loss of the Ring while staying in Rivendell and collecting lore? And if so, isn't it also a huge miss that Bilbo didn't associate this with his old Ring?

 

[Lantarion]

Good points; it does seem as though Tolkien overlooked some things.
Bilbo was becoming steadily more senile as he aged without the Ring, I like to think, so that might account for that..
He certainly seems to be completely out of the loop at the end of LotR:

"Now where were we? Yes, of course, giving presents. Which reminds me: what's beocme of my ring, Frodo, that you took away?"
"I have lost it, Bilbo dear," said Frodo. "I got rid of it, you know."
"What a pity!" said Bilbo. "I should have liked to see it again. But no, how silly of me! That's what you went for, wasn't it: to get rid of it? But it's all so confusing..."

Elrond's words in the Hobbit are obviously out-dated; or perhaps Tolkien uses the term 'age' loosely? Or perhaps Elrond was feeling especially despairing that day..

The whole thing of Gandalf being a bit slow on the uptake is incomprehendable to me, too.. I don't even have a theory to suggest.

 

[Aulë]

Originally posted by Nóm
And as a side note: Wouldn't Bilbo who loves the old tales, have learned much about the Last Alliance, Isildur, and general stuff about Sauron and the Rings of Power? He even knew the story of Gil-galad before he moved out of Bag End. Isn't it likely Bilbo had heard the tale about Isildur's death and the loss of the Ring while staying in Rivendell and collecting lore? And if so, isn't it also a huge miss that Bilbo didn't associate this with his old Ring? [/B]

If Gandalf couldn't make the connection, I don't see how Bilbo could have either.
A simple-minded Hobbit would not have been able to comprehend such a connection.

 

[Confusticated]

Elrond's words in the Hobbit are obviously out-dated; or perhaps Tolkien uses the term 'age' loosely?

This is why I wonder which edition it first apeared in.

If Gandalf couldn't make the connection, I don't see how Bilbo could have either.
A simple-minded Hobbit would not have been able to comprehend such a connection.

I don't know about that. Sometimes new-comers or people who know less might see things that are too obvious.

 

[Inderjit S]

The Ring was a secret. Hardly no one knew about it, apart from a select wise few, even in Minas Tirith where there are Isildur's scrolls, few knew what it was. I mean they claim that Frodo set fire to Barad-dur and fight with Sauron! Faramir, too is unsure of what 'Isildurs bane' is and Boromir comments on the sotry of Isildur's fall not being known in Gondor, as Unfinished tales tells us that only three people escaped and they all went to Rivendell, whilst the only person that Isildur may have told would have been Elendur, who he held in the utmost confidence. Doubtless some of Gondor's kings and later stewards (Such as Denethor) knew about it though.

The whole thing is something that upon reading LotR after reading The Silmarillion

Oh and the Noldor's and Edain's war in which they had no hope of winning 'makes sense' to you?

Given that Gandalf and Elrond (among others) knew late in the Third Age that Sauron was in Mordor planning to take over Middle-earth and believed (at least Gandalf did) that the One Ring was lost forever, and that after they learn the One Ring has been found they think that Sauron could take over Middle-earth even without it (this seems evident by some things Gandalf says in Rivendell among other things), I do wonder what the wise might have been planning to do about Sauron in the time between his return to Mordor and the discovery of the identity of Frodo's Ring.

Even if they did manage to make a 'Nearly Last Alliance ' they still wouldn't have been powerful enough to deal with him--but Saurons was MENS problem and many men mistrusted or feared Elves.

 

[Confusticated]

Originally posted by Inderjit S
Oh and the Noldor's and Edain's war in which they had no hope of winning 'makes sense' to you?

This is different. We know they had some plans. The plan was originally to attack Morgoth, then there was the seige during which Fingolfin wanted to strike but most of the other princes were unwilling. After the breaking of the seige, there was Nirnaeth. We also had Turgon trying to get messengers to Aman. Now with LotR, we don't know what they had planned for Sauron. All in all, I think King Thingol was the only one who really had the same approach that everyone seems to have had with Sauron in the Third Age.

Even if they did manage to make a 'Nearly Last Alliance ' they still wouldn't have been powerful enough to deal with him--but Saurons was MENS problem and many men mistrusted or feared Elves. [/B]

He wasn't men's problem enough that Gandalf and Elrond kept their noses out of it. Clearly they were willing to help, and doing so was Gandalf's job. I am not really asking if there was enough power for Middle-earth to get together and defeat Sauron, but am asking what people might have been thinking. The longer they waited, the more Sauron would build his forces. It seems Gandalf and Elrond believed Middle-earth could be over-taken by Sauron, which is not exactly the same thing as thinking that all of Middle-earth united could not attack Mordor with success... but based on some of Elrond's words I think he also thought such a thing could not be sucessful.

The big question is: what where they thinking? Where they trying to come up with some plan?

I haven't really delved into the elves leaving men alone against Sauron. In fact I am just now starting to think much about the Third Age. I am not even sure where all I could information on this. Letters for one, I am guessing?
The high elves where leaving Middle-earth, but what about Silvan elves? If they are going to stick around, one would think they should not see Sauron as men's problem.

 

[Inderjit S]

Nom, as you said, the two events are different-I was commenting on the hope of both events, as I thought that was what you were referring to, not the means by which they were carried out.

He wasn't men's problem enough that Gandalf and Elrond kept their noses out of it

Gandalf and Elrond were there to aid men. Elrond kept the line of Elendil going, whislt Gandalf managed to earn the title of 'stormcrow' for his work. The Elves could do little to help Men military wise, Tolkien in one of his letters states that the total population of Sindarin speaking Elven kingdoms (Rivendell, Lothlorien and Mithlond) was less then that of Gondor and it's fiefs.

The high elves where leaving Middle-earth, but what about Silvan elves? If they are going to stick around, one would think they should not see Sauron as men's problem.

Well, the Silvanic Elves of Lorien seemed happy in their stable enviorment of Lothlorien under the tutelage of Galadriel, whilst Thranduils' realm was a little more 'active' in establishing alliances with men, I think in general the Silvan Elves were more secretive.

 

[Confusticated]

Right, Gandalf and Elrond were aiding the people men's problem or not. So what did they have in mind before it was discovered that the Ring had been found?

Thanks for that information on the numbers of the elves. I had no idea, and still don't really, of what the populations of those realms are. I wonder how many Rivendell had. I do not agree that the elves would have been of little help military wise though... or did Tolkien also say that? If so, I'll have to read the context because I find it hard to buy.

But Inder, what do you think Gandalf and Elrond supposed would happen with Sauron after he had gone back to Mordor and before they knew the Ring had been found? Did they just think 'something will turn up... I hope'? Maybe send word to Valinor for help?

 

[Inderjit S]

Right, Gandalf and Elrond were aiding the people men's problem or not. So what did they have in mind before it was discovered that the Ring had been found

Well it was only after Sauron learnt of the ring's finding that he began to marshal his armies. Who knows? At first Gandalf excepted another long peace when Sauron returned to Mordor but he revealed himself after some 10 years. The ring was the catalyst really. Rohan has no problem with Mordor close to the end of WoTR as Eomer asserts to Aragorn and co. Gondor was the stalwart soldier that held Mordor at bay. Unfinished Tales tells us that Galadriel etc were not capable of punitive action. What could they do exactly-it was a difficult situation, Sauron couldn't be overthrown without the rings destruction-which they didn't they have or know of.

 

[Confusticated]

But it remains that Sauron had been planning to attack. Gandalf and Elrond surely knew that Sauron wasn't back in Mordor planning to be a good neighbour.

Any time of peace would be indication that Sauron was making preparations. Wouldn't it be best for the people of Middle-earth to make their own plans at this time? Did Gandalf or any of the wise or powerful try to put together some kind of union? Shouldn't they have? I seem to be repeating myself here. I hope what I am asking is clear.

As soon as it was known that Sauron was taking shape again, why not have taken council in Rivendell and with representatives from all the realms of Middle-earth and put together a union against Sauron? Do you think anything like that was attempted? Surely the elves would know from hindsight that much grief might be avoided when all the people work together. Maybe this could have been done before it was known Sauron was taking shape again. Gandalf, and probably Elrond too, knew that Sauron would be back, but maybe they had no idea it would happen so soon. Maybe something like this was attempted but people were not willing to attend or take part in it. For example Orodreth refusing to attend the Nirnaeth, and those unwilling to strike when Fingolfin wanted to during the seige. But, if this happend, why didn't we hear about it? or am I missing something?

 

[Beleg]

Posted by Nom
I do wonder what the wise might have been planning to do about Sauron in the time between his return to Mordor and the discovery of the identity of Frodo's Ring.

What exactly could the wise have done, they didn't have resources enough to attack Mordor, as At the end of third age Cirdan and Elrond togather couldn't field an army. Besides If for example the Elves thought of marching against Mordor, Sauron would bring his Northern Armies into action which would mean that Thandruil and Lorien would be engaged in war on their eastern borders and could provide no help. The only thing they could do was to hope for the best and hope that the waning strength of Gondor proves enough to bear the tide of Mordor.

Any time of peace would be indication that Sauron was making preparations. Wouldn't it be best for the people of Middle-earth to make their own plans at this time? Did Gandalf or any of the wise or powerful try to put together some kind of union? Shouldn't they have? I seem to be repeating myself here. I hope what I am asking is clear.

I would like to see your suggestions for the type of union. The White Council had been virtually dissolved in 2953. Even though the Necromencer flew for the moment, after some years his lieutant returned their and his creatures prowled in the forest. Further east Sauron began to gather his forces that would stop any chance of a help from Dale or Erebor incase of War and would also engage Thadruil's forces.
It could happen if the people of Lorien harden their hearts, and join the Full might of Gondor, full might of Rohan [Mind you that wouldn't effectively be possible because of the presence of Saruman and the threat of Haradrim]and attack Mordor, but even then their numbers won't be sufficant enough to overcome Mordor.
You talk of a Union, I don't think any Union could have been effective, since every Kingdom in the North-Western Portion of MIddle-earth [except for shire but it can hardly be called a Kingdom] was engaged in war with Sauron, his creatures or allies. They weren't in the position to combine forces, and corespondence would only make this fact clear. It was better to let each Kingdom fight their own war individually, except in the case of Rohan and Gondor.

 

[Eriol]

I am reminded of Sam's thoughts when I read this thread, when he was alone and thought that he'd never get to Mount Doom and looks up and sees a star and reminds himself that the Shadow is only a passing thing.

To me this passage can explain a lot of the doubts raised here. The Wise knew quite well that Sauron's defeat is a sure thing. (Ok, perhaps you don't think Sam is wise , but I, at least, think he is). To try to face off Sauron as if this was the end of the world -- to despair because of the lack of apparent alternatives -- would be lacking in estel (as Eru said to the Valar, quoted from Feanorian in another thread).

What could the wise do? Try to raise the consciousness of all free peoples? Why, this was what Gandalf spent his life on M-E doing; when he was not smoking or concocting fireworks . To create a Next-to-Last Alliance? That sounds a good idea, but how? By force? This is Saruman's plan. By persuasion? This was Gandalf's plan.

The Elves are a different matter, as I see it; they were enamored of M-E but their immortal viewpoint apparently numbed them somewhat to the urgency of the tasks. If there were no Istari they would never realize that Sauron was around, or so I see it. It's hard to be desperate if the worst thing that can happen to you is to die and gain a free ticket to Aman by this "death". They had estel, and didn't worry about Sauron winning; but they weren't too eager to help; only their leaders had a more conscious responsibility.

In fact, the only people I see who could try to create a great league against Sauron is the Gondorians; their inaction is more puzzling to me than the Wise's "inaction" (which I see as a lot of action; they were a bunch of guys after all, and were forbidden to unveil their power). Why did not Gondor try to civilize and recruit the North? This strikes me as a big blunder of the Stewards. They could have civilized the Dunlendings, for instance, or at least tried to; and so on. They were the ones who lacked estel, and who therefore would see Sauron's fleeting victory as the end of the world. They had a lot of prophecies about Sauron coming back. They really should have done something in the 3rd Millennium (I mean something besides Cirion's actions; Cirion thought along the lines I'm following here, but why was he the only one?).

But your question, Nóm, as I understand it, focuses on a more precise period, the period after the Necromancer was expelled from Southern Mirkwood; some 80 years before the War of the Ring. In this period, I really think that it is too late; perhaps you mean that anything is better than nothing, but I wouldn't agree with that if the "anything" is done by force, and this would really be the only way to create a Next-to-Last Alliance at that point.

Men were estranged from Elves; all peoples (men and elves and dwarves and hobbits) were self-absorbed; they simply did not care enough to do it. Only good ole' Gandalf was there to speak to them about the danger and the need for union; and he did his best, poor guy. I don't know what he would have done if the Ring had not appeared; perhaps he would be more active "politically", but in the end he (being Wise ) had realized that military resistance had no hope. Sauron was really too quick for them; when they threw him out of Mirkwood, they thought they'd have a respite, but very quickly we see Barad-dûr being rebuilt and Mordor being fortified.

Not even all of the peoples of Eriador and Rhovanion and Gondor could assault a fortified Mordor successfully, in my opinion; and if they attempted that they'd simply be attacked in their homes.

 

[Confusticated]

Beleg, I am asking what people imagine Gandalf and them might have been thinking or planning. I am not saying a Union would have been a success, or even that people would have been willing. I tossed it out as a possible plan for that time period... after Sauron's return to Mordor and before the wise knew that the Ring had been found.

Right Eriol, so Gandalf and probably the rest of the wise just hoped/trusted that something would turn up? Surely this sounds like something Gandalf could think.

But if it is the case, I don't know what Gandalf could have thought it would be, short of the destruction of the Ring.

Were the people going to attack Mordor and kill Sauron? People in this thread agreed that no, they were not planning to and could not have.

Was Sauron going to self-destruct (haha! but he did didn't he? )? Don't see how that could happen. Again, the wise thought Sauron was going to take over Middle-earth... unless, I guess, something stopped him. If not battle, then what?

How could he be destroyed? The only thing that they seem to have thought could destroy him was the destruction of his Ring.

So, should it not have entered their minds that the Ring being found was the only way to do this? And if so, shouldn't they have hoped for it to happen and in doing so have had an eye open for it?

 

[Eriol]

Probably; though I agree with your notion (from other threads) that the main reason behind Gandalf's "blind spot" with the halfling's ring was fear. It seems that finding the Ring was a more fearsome prospect than not finding it, for Gandalf at least.

I think that Sauron's rise in the late 3rd Age was completely unexpected and much more powerful than the wise thought it would be. They were planning for something like the Necromancer; a sorceror in Mirkwood making mischief. I think they never suspected that Sauron would really take up the title of Dark Lord and unite all Middle-Earth against the West in so short a time.

The wise had terrible intelligence regarding the South and the East. They had no idea that Sauron's minions were sowing the seeds for Sauron's return there. It was only when they were confronted with the "fait accompli" of Mordor fortified and Barad-dûr rebuilt that they realized that they had lost the war, barring outside intervention.

Perhaps they can be faulted for not foreseeing that; but I think their estel that Eru would somehow make amends, perhaps not in that generation, but one day, was very important. They knew that the Shadow, no matter how strong, was only a passing thing. They could trust that Eru would solve the problems.

 

[Inderjit S]

Hope will always live on.

"I think their estel that Eru would somehow make amends, perhaps not in that generation, but one day, was very important. They knew that the Shadow, no matter how strong, was only a passing thing. They could trust that Eru would solve the problems."


Hope will always live on:

And for my part, I shall not wholly fail of my task though Gondor should preish, if anything passes through the night that will grow fair or bear fruit or flower again in days to come. For I also am a steward, did you not know?

Gandalf's words to Denethor.

 

[Anárion]

Hmm
Well, first off, I think that you guys might confuse people further (this is already a very confusing thread) if you keep using "estel" instead of hope. Use all Elvish or none would you?

Hmmm
Anyway, I think that "the wise" were very lazy and didnt do anything at all. Gandalf said that he had to plead with the council to make the first strike on Dol Gulder. However, I believe Saruman had a big part of their laziness, as Gandalf also said that if he did not attend the next meeting, Saruman would have his way and nothing would be done.

Hmmmm
It states in Unfinished Tales that Sauron was not ready to attack, and thus hesitated on using the Nazgûl to get to the Shire. But then, he didnt know where the Shire was, and presumed that it was at the banks of the Anduin, close the Gladden Fields. Anyway, the book states that Sauron was not ready to attack yet, as he was still mustering forces.

Hmmmmm
I think that if the free peoples of Middle Earth did not make another Last Alliance/Union or whatever, and fought Sauron on their own, one by one they would fall! I do not think that they would just stand by and watch Gondor fall and then wait for Mordor to come to their lands to take up arms in futile. Yes, they would fall either way, but, at least they would help defend Gondor until it could gather more troops?

 

[Inderjit S]

Anyway, I think that "the wise" were very lazy and didnt do anything at all. Gandalf said that he had to plead with the council to make the first strike on Dol Gulder

actually, Gandalf drove Sauron away in the Year 2063, when he went to Dol Guldur to see if it really was Sauron or one of the Ringwriaths, as soem thought. When Sauron came back, in 2460, the White Council formed three years later in 2463, with Saruman at it's head. So they didn't do 'nothing' as soon as they foresaw a threat they acted-but there was little they could do. Gondor was now waining, and they could do little to help it, Arnor was gone, and the it is doubtful whether any of the Northmen or Gondorians for that matter would want aid from Elves as they feared them. Plus they had a limited supply of military aid, and a lot of that was used up in Arnor's wars with Angmar.

It states in Unfinished Tales that Sauron was not ready to attack, and thus hesitated on using the Nazgûl to get to the Shire

No, he wasn't ready to reveal his knowledge of the Rings to the wise, and thus scupper his plans for secrecy. Hence the attack on Osgoliath, described by Boromir, when they thought that they had won the passage but in reality it was just 1. Sauron's way of testing how powerful Gondor was and 2. So the Nazgul could 'scecretly' pass into Gondor and hence to where Baggins resided, which they belived was close to the Gladden fields.