Who weaves the fate of the Ring?

Barliman Butterbur said:

What needs to be remembered is that none of this was included in the final form of either The Hobbit (in which it could have been prologue) or LOTR, by Tolkien's choice. Fascinating reading for us, but in the final form of the works — it never happened!

Barley

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How certain are you that "it never happened!". The meeting itself most certainly did happen and was included in Tolkien's final version in the Appendices.

Appendix A: III: Durin's Folk

But at last there came about by chance a meeting between Gandalf and Thorin that changed all the fortunes of the House of Durin, and led to other and greater ends beside. On a time50 Thorin, returning west from a journey, stayed at Bree for the night. There Gandalf was also. He was on his way to the Shire, which he had not visited for some twenty years. Hee was weary, and thought to rest there for a while.
Among many cares he was troubled in mind by the perilous state of the North; because he knew then already that Sauron was plotting war, and intended, as soon as he felt strong enough, to attack Rivendell. But to resist any attempt from the East to regain the lands of Angmar and the northern passes in the mountains there were now only the Dwarves of the Iron Hills. And beyond them lay the desolation of the Dragon. the Dragon Sauron might use with terrible effect. How then could the end of Smaug be achieved?
It was even as Gandalf sat and pondered this that Thorin stood before him, and said: 'Master Gandalf, I know you only by sight, but now I should be glad to speak with you. For you have often come into my thoughts of late, as if I were bidden to seek you. Indeed I should have done so, if I had known where to find you.'
Gandalf looked at him with wonder. 'that is strange. Thorin Oakenshield,' he said. ' For I have thought of you also; and though I am on my was to the Shire, it was in my mind that is the way also to you halls.'
'Call them so, if you will,' said Thorin. 'They are only poor lodgings in exile. But you would be welcome there, if you would come. For they say that you are wise and know more than any other of what goes on in the world; and I have much on my mind and would be glad of your counsel.'
'I will come,' said Gandalf; 'for I guess that we share one trouble at least. The Dragon of Erebor is on my mind, and I do not think that he will be forgotten by the grandson of Thrór.

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And a little later in the same passage

'I grieved at the fall of Thorin,' said Gandalf; 'and now we hear that Dáin has fallen, fighting in Dale again, even while we fought here, I should call that a heavy loss, if it was not a wonder rather that in his great age he could still wield his axe as mightily as they say that he did, standing over the body of King Brand before the Gate of Erebor until the darkness fell.
'Yet things might have gone far otherwise and far worse. When you think of the great Battle of the Pelennor, do not forget the battles in Dale and the valour of Durin's Folk. think of what might have been. Dragonfire and savage swords in Eriador, night in Rivendell. There might be no Queen in Gondor. We might now hope to return from the victory here only to ruin and ash. But that has been averted – because I met Thorin Oakenshield one evening on the edge of spring in Bree. A chance-meeting, as we say in Middle-earth.

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So although the exact wording of the conversations of Gandalf and Thorin are not recorded in the the final version, there is an implied link directly to the quote given by Anc. Therefore not only Fascinating reading for us but a valid question to ponder on also.

Gothmog said:

How certain are you that "it never happened!". The meeting itself most certainly did happen and was included in Tolkien's final version in the Appendices....

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In that case, I stand before you head bowed, hat-in-hand: cowed, crestfallen, sheepish, shamefaced, chagrined, abashed, abased, hubris-punctured, justly, properly and rightly corrected, disciplined, chastised, and set straight!

(To make matters worse [or, in my own defense], I did read these passages long ago and forgot about them. The last similar passages I read were from Lost Tales, which weren't included.)

Barley

That'll teach you Barley

Ancalagon said:

That'll teach you Barley

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That's right, kick a poor sod when 'e's down!

Barley

From discussing who weaves the fate of the Ring, we are closing on discussing who weaves the fate of the inhabitants of Arda. Quite an interesting question. And perhaps the right one. For is not the fate of the Ring closely interlocked with the fate of Arda?

And then I start to wonder if there really is something such as totaly free-will. If Eru wanted Arda to be a place where good eventually will prevail, then absolute free-will is not possible. This must be so because Eru will not allow evil to prevail, and therefore he must at times interact. Not directly, but through various characters. So Fëanor was no 'mistake.' He came into being because it was crucial for the development of Arda. Melkor was no accident, but an offspring from the darker corners in Eru's mind. That the Istari were sent into Middle-earth was something that 'had to' happen. And the coming of Hobbits was necessarry, just like it was bound to happen that Sauron would be cast down eventually.

So the fate of everything that exists in Arda (and outside) is weaved by Eru, but most of the times we don't notice it until afterwards.

This Free Will vs Predetermined Destiny is a central topic to getting to grips with Tolkien's concept. And it makes an essential companion topic to the one of Foresight -- in defining what is foreseeable. Sometimes I think he wrote it all to express his own monotheistic Catholic beliefs, and sometimes I suspect he reasoned out the implications after the story had taken over and started writing itself.
Forgive me if I missed it, but did anyone yet supply the quote which says that Men, presumably including Hobbits, specifically have freedom from the dictates of the Ainulindalë 'which is as Fate to all others' (loosely, from memory, as I'm between bookshelves right now).

That sounds like it specifically states that the Elves and Dwarves (and even the Valar) lack Free Will, but I still cannot see this as being strictly the case.

I view Ainulindalë as painting the predetermined unfolding of history in broad strokes: "Eventually there will be a big fight and the personification of evil for the Age will be incapacitated in some fashion", "There will be a Fall of Men, but the survivors will carry on, much chastened and improved by the experience" etc.
[*]
It seems to matter to Eru only that how these victories come about -- or perhaps that they come about through good and noble deeds that stand as a moral lesson to the survivors. (Perhaps he wouldn't have accepted an outcome such as Saruman and Boromir sought, by using Sauron's own weapon to defeat him; or perhaps that wouldn't have been the end of the Third Age after all...)

I have the impression that this is where he lets Free Will loose, so that the workings of the better nature of the Children of Eru come out -- whether Eru stands as an idly curious megabeing-spectator or looking to let the immortal fëar that return to him, come back with a new and deeply moral personal experience.
The only stipulation seems to be that it will all come out well in the end, and if that needs a little divine hand in the right direction here and there, he's prepared to do whatever is necessary. (Of course this has to be as subtle as possible, because if the actors see the deus ex machina there is the danger of failing to strive earnestly any more. I think the Wisdom and continued faith of Elrond and Gandalf, even after they have gained an inkling of Eru's involvement is particularly valiant.)

In short, everyone has Free Will as to how they go about things, but the Valar -- and if they miss a trick, Eru himself -- may intervene in the smallest way possible, acting as a safety net only if things are about to go seriously wrong otherwise.

As far as weaving the fate of the Ruling Ring goes, this is obviously the focal point of the end of the Third Age, and therefore the centre of attention. Not only are the Children about to fail unaided, the emissaries of the Valar are down to 20% uncorrupted (then 0%, then 20% again!), the Valar don't do quite enough at quite the right time(s), and Eru himself has to step in as well.



Who's agreeing, or who can point out problems with this view?
Cheers,
--Os.

[*] Hmm. I've just noticed how these -- indeed the endings of each of the three known Ages of Arda -- correspond with the Old Norse concept of life after Ragnarök...!