Is the middle earth population data on this site accurate?

[Turin_Turambar]

In a fan wiki, the population of all races throughout all the ages of Middle-earth is shared. I am skeptical because it is a fan site. but do you think it is true and if so, how accurate is it? if the data is correct, there does not seem to be a huge population difference between the first and the third age. anyway, if the third age was as weak and weak as it was thought to be, why would tolkien write the third age? I think he would have passed directly to dagor dagorath without the need to write the third age. site and data below

Demography

5th Age ca. 4.000.000 Elves (Falmari and Noldor) before the Exile ca. T.T. 1496: ca. 1,800,000 Elves 600,000 Falmari ca. 800,000 Noldor ca. 200,000 Feanorians ca. 200,000 Finarfinians ca. 400,000 Fingolfinians ca. 400,000 Vanyar after the Exile ca. T.T. 1496: ca. 530,000 Elves less than 270,000...

notionclubarchives.fandom.com

 

[ZehnWaters]

I'm unsure what data they're drawing from. It seems over-inflated.

 

[mahalmar]

The one writing the numbers said they are based on his own calculations as well as those of two others. While he links to their work, he doesn't share any insight as to his own. What are his data? What are his assumptions based on? Etc.

One point in which this account departs from Stephen Wigmore's calculations are the population stats of Aman, which I based on my own calculations based on the original number of Elves having awakened at Cuivienen and 21 elf-generations having passed by the time of the kin-slaying.

21 generations? Where does he get that number from? Can anyone confirm that?

There is also a quote from Tolkien about the (fixed) numbers of Elves within Arda, but I can't find it right now (maybe someone knows what I'm talking about?).

if the third age was as weak and weak as it was thought to be, why would tolkien write the third age

Firstly, the 3rd Age spawns more than 3000 years of the sun, meaning it started around 1000 BC our reckoning, which is approximately the Age of Assyria for example (just for reference) and still a long way from the classical Greece we all know, or from Rome. The 3rd Age had ups and downs repeatedly but towards its end it was undeniably an Age of decay. And that is also a very important part of the idea of Tolkien's story, if we talk about the Hobbit and the Lord of the Rings. He want's us to embark with him and his characters on a journey through Middle-Earth seeing upon the ruins of a greater, more glorious past.
Imagine for example (even if it gets an everyday sight for the people of Gondor) living in the small city (former fortress) of Minas Tirith and see the ruins of mighty Osgiliath all the time. Or walk through Eriador and see the ruins of human places like Fernost or Annúminas or elven like Ost-in-Edhil. Those once mighty cities are towards the end of the third Age all in ruins, and not only was there a lack of population to resettle and rebuild (at least parts) of them, but also no new settlements of similar importance or size emerged.
Certainly the beginning of the 3rd Age and I would say until the splitting of Arnor, the 3rd Age was a time of greatness, of growth and prosperity (with mostly manish problems of its own). The decline begins at least since the return of the shadow maybe between 1000-1300. It wasn't noticeable at first maybe, but at the end you could easily see the rapid and drastic decline.

there does not seem to be a huge population difference between the first and the third age.

I disagree with this statement. There are many and complex factors influencing growth and population size (mostly speaking about humans now). And we know for a matter of fact, that the elven population in Middle-Earth of the 3rd Age was dwindling rapidly. The humans are a quite different subject altogether.

My concluding thought is: why is it so hard to accept the fact that the end of the 3rd Age was an Age of decline (both for humans and Elves)? And why does it have to be different?

 

[Ent]

Huorn is always skeptical about any 'numbers comparisons' because:
1. Tolkien was intentionally imprecise on many things.
2. Tolkien wrote SIL intentionally as myth, so incorporated hyberbole and exaggeration just as any "myth" increases size, strength, power, etc. over time.
3. Even in his acknowledged more 'historical' writing of TH and LoTR, there is an amount of exaggeration at times... though some numbers are clear.
4. On so many things like 'procreation rates' we have little to no data. The Elves for example, were known to 'procreate slowly'. What does that mean in terms of growing or reducing numbers, at any given time? And I know of NO statements related to whether Numenoreans procreated more like rabbits, or pterodactyls... and we certainly have no idea about the counts of the 'lesser men' at any given time.

All such counts are speculative at the very best, and Fonstad herself came under some substantial fire for her efforts at counts in her Atlas of Middle-earth.

Not to try to shut anyone's speculations down, but to ask a question of Huorn like "What do you think of so and so's speculations", is to receive an answer:
..."Well, I do believe they are indeed so and so's speculations." Huron can just concoct no other response I fear.

There simply can be no other meaningful answer.

 

[Tar-Elenion]

21 generations? Where does he get that number from? Can anyone confirm that?

From the article:
"One point in which this account departs from Stephen Wigmore's calculations are the population stats of Aman, which I based on my own calculations based on the original number of Elves having awakened at Cuivienen and 21 elf-generations having passed by the time of the kin-slaying."

I presume the author is using the Annals of Aman. If so he seems to be calculating generations as ca. 200 Sun Years, 21 Valian Years.
That seems incorrect, at least for the time in Valinor. Taking Finarfin as an example, he marries 50 VY (480 SY) after he is born, and has his first child 20 VY after that.

There is also a quote from Tolkien about the (fixed) numbers of Elves within Arda, but I can't find it right now (maybe someone knows what I'm talking about?).

I don't recall that from Tolkien (though my memory is not what it once was). If there was a quote to that effect, it might be in early writings and not carried through as the legendarium developed.

 

[1stvermont]

I'm unsure what data they're drawing from. It seems over-inflated.

That was my first thought as well.

 

[mahalmar]

I don't recall that from Tolkien (though my memory is not what it once was). If there was a quote to that effect, it might be in early writings and not carried through as the legendarium developed.

I could have sworn there was an information somewhere about the Elves in total having a fixed number, predetermined by Eru, something along those lines. But I have no idea where it could have been written.

and Fonstad herself came under some substantial fire for her efforts at counts in her Atlas of Middle-earth.

I didn't know that. But at least her demographic tables are just estimates to population density. Are you referring to this?

I presume the author is using the Annals of Aman

That could be very well be. But if one takes that as approximation, that doesn't account for the FA. Aman is always something of a different case, especially when concerning the growth of the elven population.

 

[Ent]

But at least her demographic tables are just estimates to population density. Are you referring to this?

I can honestly say I'm not entirely certain what all the spots and ways are that 'Tolkienites' have taken exception to Fonstad's work.
I've just seen gripes about it, its numbers, and the veracity of some of her other information.

It can also be said given all the variables involved, anything anyone puts forward is going to be subject to criticisms by the "knowledgeable base of Tolkienists at large"... as from my experience in my short term in the 'deeper lore' arena, the more 'knowledgeable' they seem to think themselves, the more they gripe.

Few remain able to 'just hold a discussion.'

(Nonetheless, I still hold Fonstad is an important work, very worthy of the read and review..!)

 

[mahalmar]

I took a quicke look at the references used in this notionclubarchives article.
Thomas Morwinski, although writing quite the extensive essay about the population in Eriador for example, is, from my understanding doing this for MERP, the Middle-Earth Role Playing Game (?).

Nonetheless his argumentation could be quite sound and maybe valid. One had to analyse and discuss his sources and methods tho.

But I agree with @Huorn that Tolkien kept those things intentionally mythical and hard to grasp. Otherwise I'm sure we would have left us some hints or numbers if it was of importance to him and the world he made.

@Huorn you rightly said, that all these things were left intentionally unclear and "mythological" by Tolkien. I can on the other hand understand that people, academics and experts and the general Tolkien fan in general, have a desire to know and talk about such things as demographics and the like. I think this is also a sign that the world Tolkien created feels alive and somewhat real, thus we naturally want to know more, yet better all and everything about it.

Nonetheless, I still hold Fonstad is an important work, very worthy of the read and review..!

And yes I agree. Her work is an important scholarly addition to Tolkiens world.

 

[Ent]

I can on the other hand understand that people, academics and experts and the general Tolkien fan in general, have a desire to know and talk about such things as demographics and the like. I think this is also a sign that the world Tolkien created feels alive and somewhat real, thus we naturally want to know more, yet better all and everything about it.

Fully agreed...! Thus Huorn never tries to shut down 'speculations'. I've adjusted my response above to better reflect "Huorn can only respond..." in this way.

AndI fear at my age, I'll never devote the time needed to try to sort those depths of things out to see where I might stand. I've little enough time left to scratch the surface, and write a book or two on some things of particular interest to my own approach to Tolkien's world.

I readily ingest all the stuff folks post. And when I respond, I do try to indicate it's just 'my thoughts on things'... there's just too much I don't know.

 

[mahalmar]

and write a book or two on some things of particular interest to my own approach to Tolkien's world.

Oh really? That is most interesting. I do hope we get to read it once it's finished?

 

[Elthir]

(. . .) have passed directly to dagor dagorath without the need to write the third age.

 

[Ent]

I do hope we get to read it once it's finished?

Certainly.
If they're not accepted for publishing, I'll make them available anyway...
I've actually a list of 7 books necessary... but I think I'll only achieve 2 or 3 of them. I fear I'll be a Tree soon, then just rot for mulch.

I'm more an editor though...at least up to this point. Finishing up editing for another Author's book right now. He's asked me to write an Appendix to add to it on Tolkien's primary purposes for his works and Middle-earth, and how those purposes are played out in his writing through a couple of Tolkien's central characters.

We were talking about it during some editing for him I was doing. He decided it 'had to go into his book in briefer form' as an appendix. Eventually I will write a book on these purposes, demonstrating them across all his characters. The Brief fits well into this author's work. I'm completing it now.

So that will publish...currently scheduled for January.

 

[mahalmar]

That sounds very interesting @Huorn. May I ask what the general topic/direction of those books of yours will be?

 

[Ent]

May I ask what the general topic/direction of those books of yours will be?

I'll respond in PM. We don't want to take this Thread off-topic.

 

[LaurelinBearsFruit]

A very interesting discussion, and I have also learned during my time here at TTF that all Tolkien topics that involve numbers, timescales, etc. are inconsistent at best. Tolkien's proclivity to change his own mind about things as time went on makes it exceedingly difficult to treat and "approved/published" works as gospel. This is especially true of all the works related to, but not originating, from Tolkien.

I agree with @Huorn that Fonstad's work is very useful and also very fun to read, but that it is still just her approximation of Tolkien's own inconsistencies. Sometimes it is almost better to just personally decide on scales/numbers yourself and go with it. It will ALWAYS be the subject of debate, so might as well draw our own educated conclusions.

 

[Ent]

so might as well draw our own educated conclusions.

Adding a parenthetical statement... ('while always observing others' posted information...QUIETLY... to check on our own for change if needed.)

It's the 'quietly' part Huorn struggles with... always too quick to open his bark and say stuff... ends in troubles every time. (almost).

 

[LaurelinBearsFruit]

Hahaha I can certainly relate to that! But yes, thoughts without change only bring stagnation. It is imperative to continue to change and grow as new information becomes available and as topics are discussed.

 

[Ent]

I agree with @Huorn

p.s. - be VERY careful with this stuff... ruin my image..! (and possibly yours. 😁)
Sorry about the change, but all the work and excitement on the TTF Wiki Writing Team setup stuff made me positively Entish again, so....

 

[Deimos]

omg, that is so funny