Beleriand population estimates

[Confusticated]

[Ithrynluin has split the following several posts off from the Oraginzation thread. The following post by Alatar orginally had much bigger numbers and it is the original numbers that Ciryaher and I refer to as being too large.

Please add your thoughts to the discussion and we will then make a poll.]


----------------------

When we start, some things will have to be decided. Population of the realms. Because of the battle this will have to be kept track of. A few basic guidelines will have to be in place regarding this, since the number of warriors effect your effectiveness as an army, and your number of survivors obviously determines if you won or lost, and how badly.

Since population needs to be tracked, so does the passage of time.

I think it would be cool to have someone in charge of these two things. They would be reading the RPG and would keep track of how many are killed in battle, but will not have any say in how many were killed, other players determine this. Anyhow, they will keep track of deaths and using a predetermined formula calculate the population growth, and then subtract... whatever is needed. Realms of men would multiply faster, elves and dwarves slowly, you get the idea. Of course the rulers of each realm could do this themselves, but they would be double-checked by the population person.

But that isn't the only reason the passage of time must be kept track of. With different locations, we need to take care not to get too far ahead or behind the other realms.

 

[Alatar]

Here are some Army numbers;
Fingolfin;20,000
Finarfin;15,000
Feanor;10,000
Noldo;45,000
Thingol;25,000
Falas;14,000
Green elves;8,000
Telri;47,000
Nogrod;13,000
Belegost;14,000
Dwarves;27,000
Good;190,000
Melkor;230,000

 

[Uminya]

Those numbers are way too large. Take away the last zero from each and you'll be closer to what is likely to be the case.

 

[Ithrynluin]

See the following for a speculative estimate of the armies of Beleriand:

http://thetolkien.forum/showthread.php?p=107640#post107640

 

[Confusticated]

Re: The War of the Jewels... huge project.... crazy or not? (organization ideas)

Like Ciryaher, I think the estimations are too high.

Fortunately JRRT gives us the numbers of the houses of Edain in HoME.

But regarding the elves, as JeffF points out in the thread Ithrynluin links to, the biggest evidence we have for their numbers is the fact that Turgon's army at the Nirnaeth Arnodiad was 10,000 strong.

Aside from this, JeffF says very little on First Age numbers, and what he does say is so rough that I don't think it would be of much help to us.
I don't see why we can't come up with our numbers, and if there is strong disagreement take a vote.

I think that more important than the numbers themselves are the population sizes relative to the other populations. We wouldn't want 1,000,000 Elves and 10,000 dwarves

This is what JeffF. says on Gondolin:

This is much more difficult because the only number given is the 10,000 for the Army of Gondolin. I estimate that the total number for Gondolin was closer to 12,000 since they would not have denuded the fortress of defenders and their army consisted of 12 battalions (Book Lost Tales). This number might be as much as 1/3 that of the total number of warriors available to Fingolfin (and his sons) and the Sons of Feanor. This is based on the fact that the Sons of Feanor led a smaller host of the Noldor than Fingolfin and his sons (the host of Finfarin's sons came over with Fingolfin's division of the Noldor).

Inderjit and I discuss Gondolin's population elsewhere:

Well Turgon took 10,000 to the Nirnaeth. From there we can mostly just estimate and guess.

First it depends how many soldiers you think Turgon left behind in Gondolin. I think he left few, for people like Glorfindel and Ecthelion and of course Turgon himself went out for the Nirnaeth. I think from this we can assume that the best of them went to that battle, meaning Turgon probably didn't leave too great a strength of warriors behind... at least not the best of his stregth. We can also try to figure what Turgon might have thought would be accomplished in the Nirnaeth. At this point he thought the time was right, he knew the plans of his brother and cousin... this was to be THE attack on Morgoth... this was to whip him good. If this failed, then how much hope would be left? And if he thinks this is THE attack... he'll take all he can bear to I think. Yet, Turgon would not leave his people with no defence. I tend to think he probably left only 2,000-5,000 men behind.... then we'll say there was 12,000 to 15,000 women, and they were a happy and growing people... I'll give them oh say... 10,000 - 15,000 children.

Turgon took 2/3 of Fingolfin's folk as well as a greater host of the Sindar. This would amount to a lot of people. I would imagine 10,000 people was somewhere close to half of Turgon's forces. He tells Huor that Gondolin would not last long when it is apparent that they will lose the battle so he put quite a lot of faith in the Union of Maedhros, so he would have brought a significant amount of soldiers to battle.

We know of three lords of Gondolin attending the Nirnaeth, Maeglin, Glorfindel and Ecthelion. Glorfindel and Ecthelion were mentioned because they held the flanks to the right and left and Maeglin acted as the kings seems to have been the King's guard. So each lord of Gondolin mentioned seems to have played a memorable part. There may have been other Lords/Houses of Gondolin there too.

Eventually for estimation purposes we agree on 7,000 warrior's left behind.[/quote]

Any of us could be way off.

I'll put together a rough estimation of all the populations a little later and post it here. Anyone else who wants do the same and we'll find Middle-earth ground.

And speaking on population, we learn in one version of the Sil that nearly half the Noldor were in Feanorian-land. I don't know how many would agree with though, based on what 'The Silmarillion' says. Started a thread on this once but it got no reply.

We're also told Dorthonion has a relatively small population.

 

[Confusticated]

Some quick guesses off the top of my head:

Gondolin - 100,000 (About 50 percent are Sindar)

Hithlum - 100,000 (Maybe 40 percent Sindar?)

Nagrothond - 250,000 (40 percent Sindar?)

Doriath - 250,000 (few percent are Green-elves from Ossirand)

Ossiriand - 10,000

Falas - 150,000

Dorthonion - 20,000 ( Maybe 30 percent are Sindar?)

March of Maedhros, Maglor's Gap - 100,000

Curufin Celegorm - 50,000

Caranthir - 25,000

Amrod Amras - 30,000

Belegost - 100,000

Nogrod - 100,000

What do others think, betwen mine and Alatars? Lets find something that most think is at somewhat reasonable. Perhaps his numbers are too large and mine are too small? Though with Turgon's 10,000.... don't see Gondolin being much bigger than my Generous estimation. And mind Turgon ran off with a Third of Fingolfin's original following.

 

[Ithrynluin]

As for the figures, I think some are still too high. I don't think Turgon would have left too many warriors behind, as the Niraneth would be a battle of greatest importance. So we have his 10,000 warriors...and I'd say he left some 2,000 to guard Gondolin, at most, since he still counted on secrecy to shield his city against Morgoth (and so it did for many years to come still). Then we have women and children...I'd say no more than 15,000, so my estimation of Gondolin's population would be no more than 30,000 total. But this is just my highly subjective opinion, based on no more than a hunch, and I may be way off here.

 

[Confusticated]

Re: The War of the Jewels... huge project.... crazy or not? (Discussion of organizati

I too think that 100,000 high for Gondolin but I stretched it as far as I think it is reasonable to go because I know others think it was higher than I do, and for the sake of the RPG.

In other words I wouldn't object to 100,000 if others want it, but I would object to something like 500,000.

My own hunch is no more than 50,000.

But I'm curious, if you think 100,000 is far too high for Gondolin, do you also think Hithlum and any other populations are far too high in my estimation?

And the Edain were in groups of several thousands, which was enough to put a dent in the Elven armies... so the elven armies can't have been too huge IMO. Whats 5,000 (not all warriors obviously, men would have lots of young) added to a population of 600,000? Hardly remarkable IMO.

Scatha, Cir, Beth.... anyone else reading this. Official joining thread is here, if you decide which role(s) you'd like.

 

[Alatar]

Re: The War of the Jewels... huge project.... crazy or not? (Discussion of organization)

I think that a army size is about one third of full population maybe less.

KEY
Relm;Army size
Population size​

Hithlum;20,000
60,000
Gonfdalin;12,000
40,000
Narogthand;11,000
33,000
Dorathion;5,000
15,000
Magors gap;10,000
30,000
Doriath;25,000
75,000
Falas;13,000
39,000
Green elves;8,000
24,000

Nogrod;10,000
30,000
Belegost;11,000
33,000

Dwarves;27,000

Melkor;230,000

 

[Confusticated]

Re: The War of the Jewels... huge project.... crazy or not? (Discussion of organizati

Thanks Alatar.

After others have had time to make suggestions we can put up a poll.

 

[Scatha]

Re: The War of the Jewels... huge project.... crazy or not? (Discussion of organization)

The figures provided by Alatar seem reasonably correct, aside from the standing army being a third of the inhabitants. In a full mobilisation, this may be accurat enough, but the standing army should be less then a third.

 

[Alatar]

Re: The War of the Jewels... huge project.... crazy or not? (Discussion of organization)

Yes I think that later a population thread might be needed.

 

[Confusticated]

Re: The War of the Jewels... huge project.... crazy or not? (Discussion of organizati

I like Alatar's population numbers. I think it could be up to each ruler how large their military is at different points in time. What we could do is set a limit, a maximum percentage of the population size.

Someone like Maedhros would probably have a larger military percentage than Ossiriand would for example. Just being that he is closer to Morgoth, located on a plane between Morgoth and Beleriand, and the simple fact that Feanorians are fiery and violent . They want their jewels back and Morgoth killer their father too.

 

[Scatha]

Then i'd suggest a maximum percentage of 30% for the size of the army, in comparison to the inhabitants.

 

[Confusticated]

Okay then lets go for it. Alatar's total population numbers, 30% of that max can be the army.

 

[Confusticated]

If the Maglor's Gap is ment to include all the Feanorian realms, does anyone mind if I raise the total population from 30,000 to 50,000?


The sons of Feanor had a lot of land, and with two open gaps to defend (Maglor's Gap and the pass of Aglon). Plus the books says they had "many" people.

With only 10,000 for our army spread over much of Eastern Beleriand I think Morgoth would crush through into Beleriand in no time at all.

Here is an example using 10,000 army:

Military breakdown by realm.

Maedhros total Military: 3,000
Maglor Military: 3,000
Curufin/Celegorm: 1,500
Caranthir: 1,500
Amras/Amrod: 1,000

 

[Alatar]

Sure you can. so thats it we are just about ready to start.

 

[Phenix]

except the fact that we are what? 4, 5 rulers? and maybe 6-7 ordinary characters?(some of which are played by rulers!) don't really think we can get this up and runing til we atleast have a few more ppl...though that's just me

 

[Alatar]

My opions on the amount of people are on the join thread.

 

[Confusticated]

Thanks Alatar, I'll go with 50,000 then if no one objects.

After we're decided on how to handle the passing of time the rulers can start their threads whenever they like, but like Phenix says there might not be anyone to RP in the realm yet.

I think that when we've decided on time and other rulers are ready to post, I will make an opening with an introduction to the Feanorian's realm, then make a post with my average elf character from there. Then just wait until others join. Pass time alone with my character if needed. My thinking is that people might be more inclined to join in if there is already something going on.

You two being in Hithlum and Nevrast could do something involving the Gate of the Noldor if you want.