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Gondor as Byzantine Empire and other parallels

Now to Myriam Librán-Moreno's article:

„Byzantium, New Rome!” Goths, Langobards, and Byzantium in The Lord of the Rings.

Starting with the Introduction, with a statement I feel must not be overlooked:

“… and that Tolkien put the complex history of the dealings of Goths and Langobards with the Byzantine Empire to unique, nuanced, and innovative creative uses. Afterwards, I shall attempt to throw some light on the reasons for Tolkien’s life-long interest in Goths and Langobards, as well as for his antipathy toward Constantinople, as revealed by his narrative use of the historical parallels under discussion.”

One thing is certain to me: whatever parallels Librán-Moreno finds, they are so scattered across both Byzantine et al, and Appendix A / B history (including Númenor!) that parallels in sequence simply do not exist. And while Roman / Byzantine grumping about “barbarians” being given high command is mentioned, one historical example is exactly the opposite: the kin-strife happened among the Goths in that case, not among the Byzantines.

Librán-Moreno’s notes, and list of works consulted, dwarf that of any contributor. But her contribution, longest of all in the book, is one thing, and one thing only:

“… the best we can hope for, and all we should aim for in such cases, is a comparative study.”

She utterly fails on the crucial point:

“One must always keep in mind that source studies require a causal relationship, or at least, the probability of one.”
 
I'd have to look up sources, which I'm too lazy to do at the moment, but there was at least one occasion on which Goths in high positions, including that of Magister Militum, were purged, and many in the army were supposedly killed, in an anti-"foreigner" frenzy.
 
It is not a compliment, but I find it hard to believe that Tolkien meant to use the word in the dictionary sense of "complicated and difficult to understand" (mainly because it doesn't make any sense, given the context). Given all the parallels between Gondor and the Byzantine Empire listed by OP and discussed at length elsewhere, a simple application of Occam's Razor leads us to conclude that Tolkien used the word in the more obvious sense of "of or having to do with the ancient city of Byzantium or the Eastern Roman Empire".
 
I admire Aldarion's efforts to gather so much information about similarities - but he fails on a very crucial point, as does Myriam Librán-Moreno:

“One must always keep in mind that source studies require a causal relationship, or at least, the probability of one.”
I see a weak probability, but no more. Certainly much too weak to bolster the mass of what is circumstantial evidence.
My guess is that it was selected to fit a preconception; not one "grasped out of thin air" certainly, but a preconception can lead to selective perception: seeing only what one wants to see, ignoring contradictory information.

Interestingly, perhaps revealingly, Librán-Moreno's most-used word is "compare".
To quote Jason Fisher from above again:
"... but the best we can hope for, and all we should aim for in such cases, is a comparative study. Poor source studies are often just comparative studies whose reach has exceeded their grasp; subtract the tenuous claims of deliberate borrowing or influence, and you may have an excellent comparative essay."
and again, just before that:
"The proposed source must have been available to Tolkien, and we would like to be able to demonstrate he actually read it."

Neither Aldarion nor Myriam Librán-Moreno have demonstrated this, in my view. It may be impossible do demonstrate for many works of possible sources that JRRT definitively did or did not read them. But what happens all too often is that one possibility is rejected in knee-jerk reflex:
Jason Fisher again: And of course there is always the possibility of mere coincidence: there is absolutely no reason two authors could not independently invent analogous episodes, images, names, or characters, or even use similar language to describe them.
But we on average reject this possibility impulsively, that it cannot be. A very serious defect in perception. Causalities are massively less frequent than we wrongly believe to find them. I'm not sure how bad our defect at recognizing correlations is. But study after study has found that we underestimate the frequency of coincidences by orders of magnitude. They don't make "sense" to us, but our wish to find sense in everything is practically infinite.
 
Having read pages of arguments under this post, I think Aldarion unconsciously personalizes Tolkien's work by his reality of history, which is understandable. I believe there are certain patterns in history that civilizations face as they come and go but it doesn't necessarily make the Byzantines the inspiration behind Gondor. Though, I would be glad to hear more about it if that is the case. To be honest, speaking of the Eastern Romans (not Byzantines), I was expecting someone to associate the evil powers of Mordor with the nomadic Turks, and, yet again, I am not surprised. I find it completely normal for a human to find a small similarity in a story and make it relatable to his reality.

After all, I believe his work to be a modern myth that entails the same story that has been told over centuries. From what I've seen, you are so concentrated on the Byzantines, and likewise, this theory that I find it to be misleading. Never mind though, I'm not an expert neither on Tolkien's legacy, nor the Eastern Roman history. What I can suggest, on the other hand, is that you should go out from your shell once in a while and see that not everything is about the Byzantines, hence your people's history.
 

I think Aldarion has made a convincing case.

There is another similarity, I think.

Compared to what it had been at its greatest extent, between about 1050 and 1150, Gondor was shrunken. It had lost Haradwaith and later Umbar, and a thousand years later it freely alienated Calenardhon, as a gift to the Rohirrim. By the War of the Ring it still has some fiefs, but not much more.

By the time of its fall in 1453, the Byzantine Empire was similarly shrunken, after similar alternations of weakness and strength.

There are similarities, in part because there are similar forces at work.
 
I admire Aldarion's efforts to gather so much information about similarities - ... as does Myriam Librán-Moreno.

... It may be impossible do demonstrate for many works of possible sources that JRRT definitively did or did not read them. ...
Barring any new proofs positive one way of the other in "The Nature of Middle-earth" edited by Carl F. Hostetter (which my favorite bookstore has announced for delivery next month), the issue of a causal relationship remains a standoff for me. Saying "This can't be a coincidence!" in my presence is the surest way of eliciting an icy stare and a blunt comment from me, as I've done a lot of reading on the topic of coincidence.
Waiting for Hostetter ...
 
I'll counter Ian Fleming with Arthur C. Clarke, from "3001 - The Final Odissey" (1997):

"Never attribute to malevolence what is merely due to incompetence."
 
Very funny! 😃

Yet that which appears to be “incompetence” may conceal malevolence. Ergo gratis, Adm. Wilhelm Canaris vis-à-vis the 1933-45 German government.
 
Just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they're not out to get you.

"There's a plot to make me look paranoid".

Me, 1974.
 
Yet that which appears to be “incompetence” may conceal malevolence. Ergo gratis, Adm. Wilhelm Canaris vis-à-vis the 1933-45 German government.
Hmyes, though I have this odd feeling that it may be difficult to fake incompetence.
I'm certain that "natural" incompetence is hugely more wide-spread.
And then, wasn't the "Peter Principle" in a nutshell: "promote beyond competence threshold"?
 
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...And then, wasn't the "Peter Principle" in a nutshell: "promote beyond competence threshold"?...
Back to one golden rule " statecraft and ruses are art.". Here're some points can be taken into account, newly prommoted post's requirements, such as the case shown in the WWII film Saharah(1995), the competetion for the command between a well-combat-hardened sergeant and the purely logistic Cpt. In general, it's how you assert the competence.
 
What I find interesting is that Tolkien mentioned the year 1453 in one of his christmas letters:

It was actually also the year, when the Hundred Years' War between France and England finally ended, but it's mostly known for the point, when Constantinople was conquered by the Ottomans.
 
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