OK, well here's the numbers from Q&E:
Originally there were 144
Elves born near Cuivienen, and the subsequent kindreds are always recalled as numbers of the original 144. What Q&E doesn't give is absolute numbers of elves- they are always relative to 144, though we can imagine that the actual numbers are some multiple of the following:
Vanyar-14
Noldor-28
Aman Teleri-20
Sindar & Nandor-26
General Avari-56
As TE hinted earlier
It is recorded that of all the
Noldor in
Valinor, who were grown now to a great people, but one tithe (i.e. one tenth) refused to take the road: some for love that they bore to the
Valar (and
Aule not least), some for the love of
Tirion and the many things that they had made; none for fear of peril by the way.
So we can imagine that 25 of the 28 Aman Noldor set out for ME, but not all made it. Some perished in the
kinslaying at Alqualonde:
Thrice the folk of
Feanor were driven back, and many were slain upon either side
and in the boats after the kinslaying:
But Uinen wept for the mariners of the Teleri; and the sea rose in wrath against the slayers, so that many of the
ships were wrecked and those in them drowned.
Also, following the kinslaying,
Finarfin brought many of the Noldor back to Tirion:
But in that hour
Finrod (Finarfin) forsook the march, and turned back, being filled with grief, and with bitterness against the house of Feanor, because of his kinship with Olwe of Alqualonde; and many of his people went with him, retracing their steps in sorrow
So what proportion of the 25 that set out continued on the journey? Hard to say- I'd guess between 18 and 22. Next of course comes the loss on the Helcaraxe:
Many there perished, and it was with a lessened host that
Fingolfin set foot at last upon the Northalnds of Endar.
By this time most of the 26 Sindar and
Nandor were residing in
Beleriand, but it is said that
though the Sindar were not numerous they far outnumbered the hosts of Feanor and Fingolfin, such as in the end survived their dreadful
journeys and reached Beleriand.
and
though the Sindar were not numerous they much outnumbereed the hosts of Feanor and Fingolfin, such as survived their dreadful journey.
So we know that of the 25 Noldor that set out, enough turned back or perished during the foundering of the ships and the crossing of the Helcaraxe that the survivors were 'far outnumbered' by the ~26 Sindar in Beleriand. Now, if I were to wildly guess (what else can I do?), I'd say that about 16 of the original 25 Noldor reached
Middle-earth. Next,
Grievous as were their losses upon the road, the people of Fingolfin and Inglor (Finrod) son of Finrod (Finarfin) were still more numerous than the followers of Feanor; wherefore they withdrew before Fingolfin and removed their dwelling to the south-shore, and the Lake (Mithrim) lay between the
peoples.
Well, let's put Feanor's folk at 7 and Fingolfin's and the Finarfinians at 9, after
But east of Dorthonion the marches of Beleriand were more open to attack, and only
hills of no great height guarded the vale of Gelion from the North. Therefore the
sons of Feanor with many folk, well nigh half of the people of the Gnomes, dwelt in that region, upon the Marches of Maidros, and in the lands behind
How much for the Finarfinians?
But Inglor (Finrod) was King of
Nargothrond and overlord of the Dark-elves of the western havens; ... Thus his
realm was greatest, though he was the youngest of the great lords of the Gnomes, Fingolfin,
Fingon, and Maidros, and Inglor
Felagund.
I'll give the Finarfinians 3 of the 9, leaving Fingolfin and his sons with 6. Now for Gondolin-
Then
Ulmo returned to the Sea; and
Turgon sent forth all his folk (even to a third part of the Noldor of Fingolfin's House, and a yet greater host of the Sindar)
Well, this would be 2 of Fingolfin's 6, but how many Sindar? I'll take 4 (who's going to stop me), for a grand total of 6 parts of the original 144 Elves living in
Gondolin. We know that Turgon sent out 10,000 (all male) to the Nirnaeth, and I'll assume he left some
men back to guard the
city, say 2,000. Assuming equal numbers of men and women in Gondolin, that gives the city 24,000 Elves, which we remember is 6 out of every 144 Elves alive at the time. So roughly we get each part of the original 144 Elves as being ~4,000 Elves in
First Age 472. Looking back at the top of my post (I can barely see it), that will give us the following numbers (assuming all Elven populations increased uniformly both in Aman and in Middle-earth):
Vanyar (all in Aman): 56,000
Noldor left in Aman: ~24,000, depending on how many returned with Finarfin
Teleri (in Aman): 80,000
Noldor in Middle-earth: 64,000
Sindar and Nandor: 104,000
Avari: 224,000
Remember, the 104,000 Sindar and Nandor were very spread out, some with
Cirdan, most of the Nandor were in
Ossiriand, many of the Sindar were in Hithlum and Gondolin, and many were with Finrod, so it's very difficult to say how many were in
Doriath.
Going back to my figures for the princes of the Noldor:
Fingolfin and Fingon: 4*4,000=16,000 Noldor, unknown # of Sindar
Turgon: 8,000 Noldor + 16,000 Sindar = 24,000 Elves
Finrod, Orod, A & A: 12,000 Noldor, unknown # of Sindar (Avari?)
Sons of Feanor: 28,000 Noldor, unknown # of Sindar
Cirdan: Who knows
Denethor (Nandor): Haven't a clue
Thingol: Anybody's guess
Yeouch that's a lot of speculation. I guess that aside from all my guesses at Noldor attrition during the journey East, the most important assumptions are that Elven populations grew at the same rate and that 10,000 Gondolindrim Males at NA means a total population of 24,000 in Gondolin. Also, I've ignored Sindar/Nandor attrition up to the NA, which could have been a significant amount, considering the fate of Denethor.
