What Did 👁️Sauron Know?

[Alcuin]

What did Sauron think was happening? What did he know? We’re always focused on the protagonists, the heroes, the Good Guys. Tolkien (and Lewis, too, I imagine) spent a lot of time thinking about the Bad Guys and what they knew, what they surmised, what they believed. We know the Good Guys guessed wrong and made mistakes, sometimes missing disaster by only a hair. What about the Bad Guys’ point of view?

Just to start, permit me to lay out some bases. You can add, subtract, subdivide, gather together, and otherwise alter the subject as needed: that’s the purpose of this thread!

1. After Isildur takes his Ring, Sauron reassembles himself somewhere in the East. He quietly comes back into the West in secret, settles on Amon Lanc near the east bank of Anduin, the highest point in that part of the great forest there, and builds Dol Guldur. We can surmise that he has already learned where Isildur died, and that the Ring was lost in the river in that vicinity.
2. The Valar send Maiar to oppose Sauron’s re-arising. At some point, Sauron discovers this, and identifies them.
3. I think he’s learned about the palantíri. (I don’t know that they were necessarily state secrets in the early Third Age.) He realizes he can use a palantír both to hunt for his Ring and to spy on his enemies. He dispatches the chief Nazgûl to Carn Dûm, where he becomes known as the Witch King, and sets about trying to obtain one or more palantíri from the weaker Númenórean kingdom, Arnor, which has fragmented into three subkingdoms. The most powerful palantír is at Amon Sûl, so the focus is getting control of that one.
4. Gondor suffers a civil war driven by fratricidal factions in the royal family. (Cf. the Wars of the Roses.) Gondor loses control of Umbar to the losing royal faction; Umbar becomes an enemy state to Gondor. Gondor is deprived of its navy and merchant marine, a significant source of power and revenue. A series of wars are launched upon Gondor by Umbar and its allies in the Harad that do not culminate until the War of the Ring, draining Gondor of resources and manpower.
5. The Great Plague comes from the East, devastating Rhovanion, Gondor and Cardolan. It is implied, but not stated, that the Plague was the work of Sauron.
6. Wainriders from the East overwhelm Rhovanion, an important ally of Gondor’s, and invade Gondor. They are eventually defeated, but not before Rhovanion is decimated and many of its people migrate into the Vales of Anduin to the north of Dol Guldur.
7. Arthedain collapses, and its palantíri (two, effectively: Elendil’s Stone is in control of the Eldar of Lindon) are lost. However, Gondor sends an auxiliary force to Lindon, from which it launches an attack on the Witch-king’s army, which is utterly annihilated.
8. Khazad-dûm is destroyed by the last of the Balrogs. Sauron makes contact with him, and sends some Orcs to Moria – not many, but enough to keep an eye on a potential rival or ally, and enough to help him keep interlopers out of the Mines. Sauron and the Balrog are without question old acquaintances!
9. Sauron switches his focus to the southern Dúnedain and against Minas Ithil, which is now poorly defended. After a siege, he overthrows the city and obtains the object of his desire, in addition to a major strategic victory over his primary military opponent, Gondor, the only remaining Númenórean kingdom.
10. The last king of Gondor foolishly ventures to Minas Morgul, where he is taken captive by the Witch King.
11. One of the Istari, Gandalf the Grey, comes to Dol Guldur. Sauron retreats into the East.
12. Sauron returns to Dol Guldur and foments an attack on northern Gondor. The descendents of the cavalry of Rhovanion, the Éothéod, appear unexpectedly and turn the tide of battle, destroying Sauron’s army of Orcs and Easterlings. The Éothéod migrates to northern Gondor.
13. During a bitter Long Winter, Orcs invade Eriador and in alliance with the Dunlendings invade Rohan, while Gondor is attacked by Umbar. The Orcs are overcome in Eriador, where they were apparently not very numerous. Eventually Gondor and Rohan extricate themselves with difficulty. Saruman the Wizard takes control of the old Númenórean fortress of Isengard, where there remains one of Gondor’s palantíri.
14. Smaug the Dragon invades the Dwarf-kingdom of Erebor, the successor kingdom to Khazad-dûm, kills many of the Dwarves and scatters the rest.
15. The Dwarves begin a massive war against the Orcs of the Misty Mountains, destroying most of the armies of both races; but Dwarves propagate much more slowly than Orcs. The Dwarves are unable to retake Khazad-dûm because of the Balrog, which they do not challenge.
16. Saruman discovers Sauron searching for the Ring near Anduin. We can be sure Sauron noticed Saruman, too. Sauron prepares for an attack, if he has not already laid his plans.
17. The Eldar and their allies the Wizards (i.e., the White Council) drive Sauron from Dol Guldur. Already prepared, he retreats into the East once more. Shortly afterwards, Smaug is killed near Erebor, and Men and Dwarves return to take possession of the mountain and its environs. Gandalf the Grey is somehow involved in this.
18. Sauron returns to Mordor and declares himself.
19. The last of the Heirs of Isildur is killed in Eriador. (Sauron knows nothing of Aragorn: he believes Arathorn II the last of that line.)
20. Dwarves from Erebor enter Moria, but are killed by Sauron’s Orcs under the command of the Balrog there.
21. Sauron catches Saruman using a palantír. They also know one another! both are Maiar of Aulë. He understands Saruman’s heart, that Saruman desires the Ring, too. Saruman allies with Sauron. Sauron probably realizes Saruman isn’t revealing his whole hand, but doesn’t yet believe Saruman will betray him.

I think that brings us up to the point just before Sauron discovers that his Ruling Ring has been found. Throughout these three millennia, the Elves have been growing weaker and weaker as an opposing force, with more and more of them leaving Middle-earth, until none of the Elf-kingdoms poses any offensive threat against him, though they still remain fairly tough defensively. It was probably Sauron’s policy to attack Lórien and Galadriel, his most dangerous opponent, in alliance with the Balrog, and possibly Smaug, too, then Rivendell and Elrond, and finally Lindon and Círdan. After that, the Dúnedain of Gondor could also be eliminated with the Balrog, the dragon, Easterlings, and the Men of Umbar and Harad. The Dúnedain of Gondor were no longer in alliance with the Eldar, so I suspect Sauron thought he could safely attack the Eldar before addressing the Dúnedain in the South.

During all this time, Sauron has suffered only three major setbacks since Isildur took the Ring. In Arnor, the Witch-king destroyed the Northern Dúnedain kingdom, but his army was subsequently wiped out, too, eliminating his advantage in the north between Rivendell and the principal concentration of remaining Elvin power in Lindon. The Éothéod came to the rescue of Gondor during the Balchoth invasion, although Sauron probably supposed they were no longer in any position to help Gondor, consolidating his enemies in the South. His most serious setback, however, was the unforeseen destruction of Smaug, which not only eliminated the dragon as a offensive weapon against the Elves and possibly Gondor, but worse, positioned Dwarves and Men in strong defenses along the frontier of Sauron’s northern attack route.

Sauron’s best advantages were:

• the estrangement of Elves and Men, making them weaker;
• eliminating the Dwarves as an offensive force;
• utterly destroying Arnor as either an offensive or defensive opponent;
• the increasing weakness of the Elves, reducing them to merely a divided defensive force; and
• the weakness of Gondor, rendering it only a defensive opponent.

In addition, Sauron’s enemies are also unaware of the Balrog in Moria (though Celeborn is deeply suspicious of the nature of Durin’s Bane). Moreover, all the Maiar the Valar sent have been neutralized but one, Gandalf the Grey.

Up to this point, no one knows the Ruling Ring has been found. Gandalf is suspicious of Bilbo’s Ring, but even he does not know for certain what it is. Sauron seems to be biding his time, wearing his enemies down little by little.

 

[Alcuin]

So far, no one knows the Ruling Ring has been found. It’s just a few years after Bilbo’s Farewell Party. Things begin to heat up. What does Sauron know, what does he think he knows, and what does he believe?

1. At some point, Sauron discovers Denethor using the palantír of Minas Anor (Minas Tirith). He cannot daunt or control Denethor, but he can influence much of what the Steward of Gondor sees in his stone. Denethor and Sauron begin to wrestle psychologically. (As the rightful Steward of the King, Denethor has lawful use of the Stone, which aids him in his contests with Sauron.)
2. Sauron captures a Halfling on the borders of Mordor. It has responded to his summons for the Ring. He questions the creature and learns it has held one of the Great Rings, he discovers where it was found, and determines that was his Ruling Ring! Although the Halfling reveals the name of the person who took it from him and the place that creature lives, he proves very tough. Sauron decides to follow it, believing it will lead him to the Ring.
3. Sauron releases the Halfling and his agents follow it. Somewhere near the Dead Marshes, however, the Halfling is captured by a Man and taken to the Elves in northern Mirkwood. Almost immediately, Gandalf the Grey also enters the Elven kingdom in northern Mirkwood. Gandalf has proven problematic on several occasions. Sauron takes notice, and sets a plan to recapture the Halfling.
4. The Halfling is recaptured, but escapes Sauron’s Orcs. They lose its trail and cannot find it. Sauron eventually becomes aware that Saruman is frustrating his search for the Halfling, but restrains his anger and conceals his knowledge from Saruman.
5. Sauron sends the Nazgûl to search for his Ruling Ring. He attacks Gondor at Osgiliath to make it seem that he is merely using the Nazgûl as part of a new war against Gondor. The Nazgûl move into the Vale of Anduin, where Sauron supposes “Shire” is located. Sauron has not yet discovered that “Baggins” is not a Man, but another Halfling.
6. When the Nazgûl report that they have searched the Vale of Anduin for “Shire” without success, Sauron sends them to confront Saruman. The Nazgûl are unaware that Gandalf has only just escaped; whether Sauron was aware that Saruman had captured Gandalf, I do not know.
7. Upon their return from Eriador, Saruman learns the following:
   • The Ringwraiths found one of Saruman’s spies, his maps, and his list of names. They discovered the location of “Shire” and of “Baggins”.
   • Khamûl came upon the Bearer, but was prevented from seizing him by a group of Noldor.
   • The Bearer escaped across the Baranduin.
   • The Bearer appeared in Bree but escaped the Nazgûl there, too.
   • Elves and Rangers are shadowing the Nazgûl and harassing them.
   • Gandalf was also searching for the Bearer. All nine Nazgûl confronted him at Amon Sûl but were unable to overcome him; he escaped northwards, and four followed after him, hoping to discover the Bearer.
   • The Witch-king, Khamûl, and the three remaining Nazgûl discovered the Bearer soon after at Amon Sûl. He was a small, spiritless creature, but he had somehow defeated a Barrow-wight, and obtained a knife designed to destroy the Nazgûl! There was also a Man with him, apparently a great power although “only a Ranger.”
   • The Bearer somehow survived an attack with a Morgul knife for at least three weeks. Normally, such an attack kills or “wraithifies” a victim in a matter of hours or days.
   • The Nazgûl subsequently lost track of the Bearer, but found him again at the Ford of Bruinen, where they almost captured him before being overwhelmed by a flood and attacked by a great Elf-lord. (The two remaining Númenórean Nazgûl may have recognized Glorfindel; if they did not, they still recognized a powerful Elf-lord.)
8. The Bearer set out from Rivendell with eight companions, including Gandalf the Grey.
9. They defeated Sauron’s necromantic wolves in Eregion.
10. They tried but were prevented from crossing over the Redhorn Pass.
11. They entered Moria, where Gandalf fought the Balrog, destroying them both.
12. They entered Lórien and stayed there about one moon.
13. They floated down Anduin. Along the way, one of them shot a Nazgûl’s flying mount from the sky.
14. Two Halflings were captured at Parth Galen, and one powerful Dúnadan was killed there.
15. Sauron was aware that someone wearing his Ruling Ring had seen him in Barad-dûr. He searched for him (probably with the palantír), but did not find him. If he continued to search, it is likely he saw a Man, one of the Bearer’s company, sitting on Amon Hen. (That would be Aragorn, who saw nothing in the Seat of Seeing, except that the sun was darkened.)
16. The Orcs carried the Halflings to Saruman rather than to Sauron: Saruman’s treason against Sauron was complete.
17. Saruman’s forces, which far outnumber the Rohirrim, are all but annihilated in western Rohan. Sauron wonders how Saruman failed so miserably to defeat such a weakened foe: he probably knows about the bewitchment of Théoden, but not his cure.
18. Sauron unexpectedly finds a Halfling using Saruman’s palantír. He assumes Saruman made the Halfling look into the stone in order to torment him, and sends a Nazgûl to retrieve it. Perhaps Saruman was not a traitor after all?
19. Only hours later, though, Sauron finds a Man using Saruman’s palantír, one of the companions of the Bearer set out from Rivendell. But this Man is not just any Man: he is the Heir of Isildur, and he bears Elendil’s sword reforged! This Dúnadan then wrenches control of the Orthanc Stone away from Sauron and refuses further contact with him. How did the Heir of Isildur take the Stone from Saruman in Orthanc?! He has overthrown Isengard!
20. The Heir of Isildur rides to Dunharrow with a small group of Men.
21. Sauron decides to attack Gondor at once with all the force he can quickly muster in order to prevent the Heir of Isildur from using it a base of operations.
22. Sauron makes certain Denethor knows about the Heir of Isildur in order to incense Denethor’s pride and arouse his jealously, splitting his opponents operating in Gondor.
23. Sauron causes Orodruin to belch a tremendous cloud of volcanic dust, obscuring the sky and the sun.
24. Sauron attacks Minas Tirith with three armies: one in the north to block any assistance from Rohan, one from Minas Morgul led by his chief commander, the Witch-king, and one from Harad. In addition, a large marine invasion of the coasts of Gondor is launched from Umbar to prevent any help arriving in Minas Tirith from the populous southern fiefs.
25. Minas Tirith is quickly enveloped, and the Gates are broken. But wind from the Sea breaks Sauron’s darkness. The cavalry of Rohan arrives unexpectedly, somehow evading his northern army commanding the road. The Witch-king is destroyed! And the Heir of Isildur arrives in Sauron’s own ships from Umbar with a powerful force from the coastal fiefs, completely defeating his remaining force outside Minas Tirith. Very few escape.
26. Gandalf the Grey (Sauron doesn’t know the difference) reappears. He was supposed to be dead, but you know, accidents can happen.
27. Sauron subsequently learns that the Heir of Isildur attacked his naval expedition using wraiths.

I think this is about right. Is there any reason Sauron should not believe that Aragorn is using the Ruling Ring?

Gandalf said that Sauron would wait for a time in which one of the allies would seek to seize the Ring for himself and put down any opposition. Is Gandalf correct? And why would Sauron think that might be, if the Heir of Isildur had possession of the Ring?

Have I made any errors or left anything out?

 

[Deleted member 12094]

One thing to include, maybe: until very few moments before his downfall, Sauron did not know that the enemy was seeking to destroy the Ring, rather than to use it!

 

[Tulukastaz]

I've barely read anything on this page, yet I'll comment that after I post this reply, I will press the keys "CTRL + S" on my computer and save this page for offline use, and read it when I deem fit, and reply if I have something to contribute (if I can).

The thread title was a question that I haven't thought of or heard mentioned before, so I figured it would be discussion here that I might find of interest.

 

[Olorgando]

Sauron captures a Halfling on the borders of Mordor. It has responded to his summons for the Ring. He questions the creature and learns it has held one of the Great Rings, he discovers where it was found, and determines that was his Ruling Ring! Although the Halfling reveals the name of the person who took it from him and the place that creature lives, he proves very tough. Sauron decides to follow it, believing it will lead him to the Ring.

I get to wallow in one of my favorite obsessions!😁
Never mind that Sauron (or his henchmen) found amazingly Gollum tough (indomitable, even) despite interrogation and torture (that they got right, sort of).
Sauron had given, relatively, pathetic trinkets to some definitely non-trivial Big Folk that turned these into wraiths,
This Halfling had been around his immensely more powerful One Ring for 478 years without turning into a wraith!
Shouldn't this have given Sauron some serious food for thought? Blinded by the superficial smallness, perhaps? So many blind spots …

(Edit: what the ...?)

 

[Starbrow]

Within the story, how did Gandalf or Sauron know how long Gollum had the ring? I can't imagine Gollum counting the years. Did his people keep track of the years and whose year counting system would they have used?
Did they know he had the ring for 478 years or just that he had had it for a long time?

 

[Olorgando]

Within the story, how did Gandalf or Sauron know how long Gollum had the ring? I can't imagine Gollum counting the years. Did his people keep track of the years and whose year counting system would they have used?
Did they know he had the ring for 478 years or just that he had had it for a long time?

Ouch! Telling point, Starbrow.
I got carried away with Appendix B in RoTK, tale of years for the Third Age. 2463 Ring found, 2470 Gollum goes underground, staying there until 2944. But all guessed-at, approximate dates. That would mean that Gollum had been underground 474 years. But how would he know, not having seen the sun, moon, stars, seasons in all that time. Would he even have known that when he resurfaced in 2944, that it had been three years since he lost his precious to Bilbo?
But then in 2460, Sauron returned to Dol Guldur "with increased strength", having retreated from there to the East in 2063 when Gandalf "paid a visit" to Dol Guldur. I would hypothesize that Sauron had something like a "weak signal" from his One Ring, the Gladden Fields (as per Karen Wynn Fonstad's Atlas) being roughly 125 miles or 200 kilometers north-north-east of Dol Guldur. Ten years later, the signal basically disappeared (and had grown weaker before that as Gollum moved north) when Gollum went underground. I would think Sauron could do calculations based on this - very hypothetical, to be frank (but when you have nothing else, straws look good to grasp at! )

 

[Starbrow]

Still pretty hypothetical. Knowing that the Ring left the Gladden Fields is not the same as knowing one being had it the whole time it was gone. It's a lot easier to recognize the clues in hindsight.

 

[Deleted member 12094]

I got carried away with Appendix B in RoTK, tale of years for the Third Age. 2463 Ring found, 2470 Gollum goes underground, staying there until 2944. But all guessed-at, approximate dates. That would mean that Gollum had been underground 474 years. But how would he know, not having seen the sun, moon, stars, seasons in all that time. Would he even have known that when he resurfaced in 2944, that it had been three years since he lost his precious to Bilbo?

I always thought that the finding of the Ring occurred at a time when the Hobbits were still living in that area, but now I realize that I was wrong:

1150 The Fallohides enter Eriador. The Stoors come over the Redhorn Pass and move to the Angle, or to Dunland.​

[...]​

1551 Many Periannath migrate from Bree, and are granted land beyond Baranduin by Argeleb II. ​

c.1630 They are joined by Stoors coming up from Dunland.​

[...]​

2463 The White Council is formed. About this time Déagol the Stoor finds the One Ring, and is murdered by Sméagol.​

I wonder how to piece that together!? Some 1300 years after their migration towards Bree and the Shire, would there still live some remaining Hobbits around the Gladden Fields?

Hmmm ...

 

[Elthir]

Certain Stoors were "remigrant"

According to JRRT, letter 214, draft to A.C. Nunn "probably" late 1958 early 1959

🐾

 

[Deleted member 12094]

Yes, you are right Elthir! Good to know! Maybe I'll put some relevant quotes from that letter here:

With the remigration of the Stoors back to Wilderland in TA 1356, all contact between this retrograde group and the ancestors of the Shirefolk was broken. More than 1100 years elapsed before the Déagol-Sméagol incident (c. 2463). At the time of the Party in TA 3001, when the customs of the Shire-folk are cursorily alluded to insofar as they affect the story, the gap of time was nearly 1650 years.​

... and a footnote thereof:

Between 2463 and the beginning of Gandalf's special enquiries concerning the Ring (nearly 500 years later) they appear indeed to have died out altogether (except, of course, for Sméagol); or to have fled from the shadow of Dol Guldur.​

Thx for the tip Elthir!

 

[Elthir]

I like this letter 'cause Tolkien is not only adding stuff, he's doing so, at least in part, 'cause he's trying to smooth out author-published description which might appear contradictory.

He's keeping things internal, as I would put it 🐾

 

[Olorgando]

Still pretty hypothetical. Knowing that the Ring left the Gladden Fields is not the same as knowing one being had it the whole time it was gone. It's a lot easier to recognize the clues in hindsight.

True.
But then, external to the legendarium, our beloved Professor created the Appendix B tales of years of the Second and Third Ages (he loved to do annals every once in a while).
Internal to the legendarium, who could have been the source for what is given (with some doubt) about when Gollum did what in what ended up in the tale of years of the Third Age?
I would say Gandalf.
As he reported (without going into unnecessary details) of his interrogation of Gollum during the Council of Elrond.
Now, I'd think that we can agree that Sauron would have no compunction about torturing Gollum by orders of magnitude more than Gandalf. Sauron found out that in some fundamental sense (to belabor one of my favorite obsessions once again) that Gollum was indomitable. Might have made Sauron look at his nine Nazgûl, wraithed from some pretty narcissistic Big Folk power mongers millennia ago, with the fleeting thought of "chicken-droppings wimps!"
I'd postulate that Sauron wrung more from Gollum than Gandalf did (especially since Sauron had put a fear on Gollum, imperfect as it may have been, which was still quite effective). Sauron's problem was that he was far less acquainted with details north of Dol Guldur, and never mind west of the Misty mountains, than Gandalf was. But as to when Gollum got a hold of the One Ring, Sauron may have been able to guess more than Gandalf (though later the latter caught up).

There is one problem with my hypotheses.
"In 2460, Sauron returned to Dol Guldur"
"in 2463 the One Ring found"
"in 2470 Gollum goes underground".
Gollum moves north, away from Dol Guldur, entering the Misty Mountains.
But after escaping the Elves of Thranduil in 3018 (!!!), Gollum is distracted in the direction of Mordor.
Well, it's more than 500 years later.
Sauron has been "rebuilding" for centuries, or millennia.
Leaving aside an almost PJ-ish tendency on the part of the Professor to bloat the powers of the "enemies" ...
Sauron had not developed the skill to "attract" evil beings back in the mid-25th century Third Age. But his wanting the One Ring back could have caused Gollum to move away from this threat to his keeping his "precious" and all the rest.
Just a hunch (what we JRRT nerds love to insert in gaps left by the Professor … 😃 )

 

[Aramarien]

Sauron has not yet discovered that “Baggins” is not a Man, but another Halfling.

This is something I never considered before!!! Excellent observation. This makes a lot of sense. Of course Sauron would assume that someone who was a "thief" and stole the Ring from this creature Gollum was probably stronger and bigger.

In "The Shadow of the Past", Gandalf says , " I believe that hitherto - hirtherto, mark you - he has entirely overlooked the existence of hobbits."

Your excellent post, Alcuin, points out how Sauron was weighing his enemies. He wouldn't even consider Hobbits, even if he was slightly aware of their existence.