Originally posted by Bombadillodillo
If I am correct, neither
Sauron's nor
Saruman's
orcs were in
Moria.
.
Just to correct on that point -
Gandalf says at one point in Moria that he's seen
Uruks of
Mordor. So Sauron appears to have this route covered!
I would set out the logic like this.
(1) The Gap is the easiest route south, and should be taken, although its a shame to miss out on
Lothlorien.
(2) But Saruman has gone bad. Saruman knows the Gap is a likely route south, and will do his utmost to stop them. His HQ is next door so Saruman is 100% likely to try to stop them.
(3) What does Saruman need to do to stop them? I'll go into this in some detail, since
Harad doesn't believe me.
He must overfly the ground from Hollin southwards with
Crebain to confirm their approximate location. He can post spies throughout
Dunland, and locals can patrol for him. If they sneak past the
Dunlendings they must cross the river. Firstly post about 1000 Uruks at the Fords. Then post about 500 in groups every 10 miles along the rest of the river. (Takes a total of 4000 - he's got this many). Then about 5 miles out from there, post small bands of wolf-riders - say 5-10 every 1/2 mile, with some kind of signalling system. Smoke, mirrors, some clever magic whatever - you're a wizard you can figure something out no problem. If the Fellowship hit that net, the groups by the river close in to choke it off. Swarm the skies with crebain, from this point out a further 25 miles so that every point is covered every hour or so. By this method, ensure that you have your wolf riders in position to catch them coming through and setting off the alert. The chances of avoiding detection: almost nil. Chances of the Fellowship successfully getting across a river without boats with that sort of force patrolling: almost nil. Even if Saruman can't stop them, the location of
the Ring becomes known. Therefore the Gap is high risk.
(3) Therefore look for alternatives. Both Sauron and Saruman will consider the other routes.
(4) The most obvious alternatives are the mountain passes. There are 3: the High Pass, the pass by source of the River Gladden, and the Caradhras pass.
(5) Logical step from Sauron / Saruman - close the other passes (preferable) or watch them (minimum).
(6)
Aragorn view: choose your best route above ground. Gandalf view: take a hidden route that is less obvious (Moria). A disagreement needs resolution, but the debate is inconclusive.
(7) Eregion is empty, rugged and little known except to the people of
Rivendell. The Vale of
Anduin is wide open, not far from
Dol Guldur. Therefore stay to the west of the
mountains as long as possible. Also it is winter, so northern passes may be harder than southern passes. (Also, the High Pass is known to go pass an
orc stronghold (cf the
Hobbit). Gandalf may or may not have got a 'friendly giant' to block it up - unknown). Aragorn prefers Caradhras.
(8) The company proceeds to Hollin, with the issue not yet resolved.
(9) Gandalfs view on Moria. Moria has a single entrance and single exit. If you attempt to close it, the probability of success is extremely good - for the sake of argument lets call it 100%, but Sauron and Saruman won't expect it. Also if you get through without incident, you will have been hidden.
(10) Now lets compare the odds:
Gap of
Rohan: Probability of attempt to close = 100%. Probability of successfully closed = X%. Probability of closure = 100% x X% = X%.
B Moria: Probability of attempt to close = Y%. Probability of successfully closed = 100%. Probability of closure = Y% x 100% = Y%.
So Gandalf has to think it is less likely that they can sneak through the Gap, than that Sauron or Saruman will have not blocked Moria. He has to think that the odds are sufficiently better that he can discount the fact that Moria is risky anyway. He doesn't necessarily know the nature of
Durin's Bane, but he would expect orcs at least. He has got through an orcs lair before in the
Misty Mountains (in the Hobbit), and this time the odds should better. The
dwarves and Gandalf were taken by surprise, and all but Gandalf were captured in the Hobbit, got themselves free and escaped. The Fellowship are probably better able to defend themselves, and know what to expect. He hopes to sneak through. He hopes (but doesn't expect) to meet up with
Balin. He knows he can have tea and biscuits with
Galadriel if he goes this way.
(11) Aragorn wins the debate: they go for Caradhras as the best bet, but that gamble proves not to work due to the snow.
(12) So they go to Moria. There is a
Watcher in the Water, but its not there to take Rings from
Hobbits - they get by.
(13) They are unlucky. Firstly
Pippin lobs a stone down the well. Secondly, Sauron has sent Uruks. Thirdly, Balins folk are all dead. Fourthly, they've woken up Durin's Bane. Fifthly,
Durin's Banes a
Balrog.
(14) They also get lucky: Firstly, the orcs are poorly organised - they do not hold the
Bridge of Khazad-dum - they chase after stone-throwing hobbits. Secondly, the
ring-bearer has a hand-me-down milthril shirt.
(15) Balrog leaps one bridge. Gandalf breaks bridge. Balrog falls. Balrog swings whip. Gandalf teeters on brink. "Fly you fools!" It was his idea - the cheeky monkey!
Well this is a long post and no mistake. I can think of no more to say on this subject. Except that I recognise that the probability of convincing Harad on this one, is significantly lower than the probability of the Fellowship getting through the Gap of Rohan.
'Ai! ai!' wailed
Legolas. 'Harad! Harad is come!'
Gimli stared with wide eyes. 'Logic's Bane' he cried, and letting his
axe fall covered his face.'
Whoops that's not a personal attack is it? I will be struck down! Harad - can I say how in this thread I have enjoyed your posts - you have played with logic in a masterly fashion!
