Gordis, I don’t see any evidence that
Gandalf intended to rely upon
Gollum for guidance or as a guide into
Mordor. I disagree with you that had Gandalf intended to cross at
Minas Morgul he would have hewed to the west bank of
Anduin beyond the
Emyn Muil: crossing Anduin inside the territory of
Gondor at
Cair Andros and especially around
Osgiliath or Emyn Arden would too easily have been marked. Only the
Rangers of Ithilien made secret crossings. Using the Rangers of Ithilien to cross meant going to
Minas Tirith and obtaining
Denethor’s blessing of the plan, something we know would have been refused, though perhaps Gandalf might not have realized that until too late; or else suborning
Faramir or some other
Rangers to take them across despite Denethor’s orders.
At the beginning of “Farewell to
Lórien” in
Fellowship of the Ring,
Aragorn told
Celeborn,
‘We have not decided our course. Beyond
Lothlórien I do not know what Gandalf intended to do. Indeed I do not think that even he had any clear purpose.’
This clearly shows that Gandalf had not discussed any plan for entering Mordor with Aragorn,
the one person with whom he was most likely to take counsel on such an effort: Aragorn had been in the Ephel Dúath and
Morgul Vale in the past two years, probably knew some of the Rangers of Ithilien or at least of their movements, knew the lay of the land and was personally familiar with many of Mordor’s defenses.
I don’t disagree with you about the Nargil Pass or eastern Mordor: these are of out the question, though Nargil might have been the softest target. (Crossing
Nurn and
Gorgoroth from the south might have been another matter.) I cannot imagine that Gandalf would try the
Morannon, which would have been little different from knocking at the front door of
Barad-dûr. That leaves only the Morgul Pass. But going through Minas Tirith was inviting scrutiny and detection by
Sauron: for the sake of secrecy, the Emyn Muil is the southernmost place a traveler could have safely crossed Anduin without being marked. Had the
Ring-bearer passed through Minas Tirith, he would unquestionably have been recognized as a
Halfling, just as
Pippin was, attracting more attention than almost any plan of stealth could have overcome: even his absence would have been noticed had he once entered the
City.
But nowhere do I see any indication that Gandalf intended to use Gollum as a guide, whatever his heart foretold in
Hobbiton.